Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO GET RID
OFF THE PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN HAS MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY DAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

********************PREVIOUS 400 AM DISCUSSION********************

.CURRENT...AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AS SURFACE WAVE OVER DELAWARE BAY GETS READY TO MOVE
OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT PARKED TO OUR SOUTH...THUS LOW CEILINGS AND
AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO GO AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.SHORT RANGE...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE NEXT 60H...WITH SMALL TIMING ISSUES CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE
TROF COMING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS PREFERRED HERE.

DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY...SENDING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WHILE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DESCENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO LIFT THIS MORNING WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS...WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WHILE SLIGHT RISK MENTIONED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOK...
WOULD PREFER TO HOLD OFF FROM MENTIONING SEVERE IN ZONE TEXT. MID
LEVEL WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH WET BULB ZERO LEVELS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IDEAL LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
DAYBREAK. A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY.

.HYDRO...FFA WILL BE CANCELLED.  ANY FLOODING WILL BE DUE TO BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AFT/EVE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MINOR NUISANCE/URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE FLASHY...FAST RESPONDING STREAMS OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAY TO COME.

.MARINE...NO FLAGS AS WEAK FLOW CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE TUE AND
WED...WITH HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
DIGGING TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA.

.CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-150000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1245 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE NEW YORK METRO AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE GIVEN WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THIS IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT.

ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
UPDATES.