Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IN PA MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PUSHING
TO OUR EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. I/LL FCST CAT POPS FOR RW WITH A CHC OF TRW. SOME HEAVIER
RW PSBL ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PW/S INCR TO AROUND
2 IN...SO I/LL MENTION SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PSBL.

TNGT THRU WED NGT...HI PRES BUILDS IN TNGT AND THEN MOVES GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE AREA...FAIR.

THU...A COLD FRONT APCHS FROM THE W. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE ETA IS A LITTLE SLOWER. I/LL
FCST SLGT CHC POPS FOR LATE THURS AFTN/EVE.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...PONDING OF WATER LIKELY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG PROBLEMS EXPECTED. WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME OF OUR USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS IN NJ AND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. TOTAL PRECIP SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS SO WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR WINDS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD OVER 5 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH...SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE AND FALL BELOW 5 FEET THIS EVENING. AFTERWARDS NO
PROBLEMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...WITH SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
MAINLY MVFR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY...AT TIMES...FALL INTO IFR
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WESTERN TERMINALS AND 17Z
EASTERN. WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS MAY MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH. SHOWERS END AND VISIBILITY BECOME
UNRESTRICTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR
THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&

.OKX CURRENT WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS...ANZ355-353-350-330-335-338.

EKH/MET

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
456 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULTING IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN
ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EKH

NYZ072>076-231400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
849 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR THE 5 BOROUGHS OF NEW
YORK CITY...

AT 848 AM...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM ORANGE COUNTY NEW YORK TO JUST WEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY.  THE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT OVER 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.  IF IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...MEANING WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH...WARNINGS MAY FOLLOW.

REYNOLDS

CTZ009-NJZ003-006-NYZ069>077-231430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
936 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

AT 932 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF NEW YORK
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF...
WEST NYACK...THE VERRAZANO NARROWS BRIDGE...VALLEY COTTAGE AND
TAPPAN AROUND 940 AM...
AND UPPER NYACK AROUND 945 AM.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

GOODMAN