Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
230 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

BROAD ELONGATED H5 LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHEAR AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PLAINS ALSO VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED
SOMEWHAT E-W. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW FROM SOUTHEAST
OHIO WESTWARD TO COLORADO. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SINKING SOUTHWARD
SLOWLY. WHILE EXCELLENT SHEAR IS NOTED IN LATEST VWP IMAGES FROM
OHX...INSTABILITY AND B+ IS STILL LACKING. MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE
THAT THESE 2 FACTORS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER
...THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT HELICITY APPEARS TO DECREASE MARKEDLY OVER
THE MIDSTATE FROM 12Z TO 18Z IN LATEST PROGS. AT ANY RATE...SELS
SLIGHT CHANCE IS ON TARGET WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS ATTM.

MODELS INDICATING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSTATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EVENING  POPS DROP TO
20-40 RANGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER...MAINLY PLATEAU. AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HEATING
COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY PROFILES
WITH RENDER A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
AS INDICATED BY SELS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MIDSTATE LATE FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
IN THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

BNA TE 070/054 073/051 063 18720
CSV TE 066/051 070/048 067 18744

.BNA...NONE.

JLM

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-201130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS, THE ATMOSPHERE
IS DE-STABILIZING OVER THE MIDSTATE. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOLD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY BY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDSTATE THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA
TODAY.

JLM