Severe Thunderstorm Warning 472, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN
THE LOWER AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING EASTWARD AT 25 MPH.
CELLS IN THE LINE, OF COURSE, MOVING CONSIDERABLY FASTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FRONT IS BEING PUSHED BY A POWERFUL H5 SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSTATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL BEHIND THIS CONVECTION AND BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AGGREGATE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SEEMS TO INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS POSSIBLY GETTING 2-4
INCHES. OF COURSE, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AND EAST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD END BY WED AFTN WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR
MONDAY.

FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WATCH
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AFTER THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE LINE PASSES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H5 LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH A GOOD -18C COOL POOL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS GOOD INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED IN MID LEVELS TO KEEP THE RAIN MACHINE GOING TONIGHT.

ALSO...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MOVING INTO THE AREA, WOULD EXPECT
SOME SEVERE THUNDER WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL TO A LESSER EXTENT.
TORNADIC ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY IN MS/AL.
&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JLM

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOIST SOUTH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ROTATION.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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