Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
109 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

CURRENTLY, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUT UNTIL 500 PM. DATA FROM THE
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING ARE AVAILABLE UP TO 400 MB, AND SHOW A LIFTED
INDEX OF -4.3, TOTALS INDEX OF 52, AND A K-INDEX OF 31 -- ALL
INDICATORS OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

AT 17Z, A 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR UNION CITY,
TENNESSEE, WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE. MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER APPEARS TO BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IN THE REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.

LOOKING AHEAD, COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BNA IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z
AND 01Z. BY THEN, ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
METRO AREA, WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHIFTING ONTO THE PLATEAU BY
EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK,
OCCLUDED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP US CLOUDY WELL INTO TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OUT OVERNIGHT, LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU BY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOOK FOR A PLEASANT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY STRETCH, WITH POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO TERRIBLY COOL, AND A NICE WARM-UP WHICH
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD.

BNA 54/67/48/76/51/79 510001
CSV 52/64/44/73/46/74 720001

.BNA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

ROSE

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-261030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR GRAMMATICAL ERROR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE
TODAY, SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE LEVEL OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CROSS SEVERE THRESHOLDS,
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE
RISK COVERING THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. YOU ARE
THEREFORE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS, AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR ANTICIPATED SEVERE
WEATHER.

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
0130 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1130 AM    FAYETTEVILLE              TN   0.75 IN HAIL
04/25/03   LINCOLN

ROSE