Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE OBVIOUSLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTER NEBRASKA HAS NOW BEEN PLACED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360 WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS WERE STREAMING NORTH
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTH THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE
STORMS HAS FIRED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE WARM FRONT...THUS STORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
WILL ALLOW LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE BOX WILL BE NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER EASTWARD. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE...WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LOW AND SECONDARY AREA OF MOISTURE ROTATES
TO OUR NORTHEAST...ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
15 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...THAT TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR
THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION LATE THIS
WEEK APPEARS TO BE HEADING JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. STILL NEED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT SHOULD DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE MILD AND DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AGAIN EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY...THE WARMEST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80.

.OMA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WEST
OF THURSTN TO WAHOO TO BEATRICE UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

VLD

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-132300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA UNTIL 7 PM CDT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. BY EARLY EVENING...THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY
MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND ALSO ON MONDAY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    1 NW ORCHARD              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   ANTELOPE                       REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
407 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0335 PM    8 N ORCHARD               NE   .88 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   KNOX                           REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

0346 PM    6 SW CREIGHTON            NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   ANTELOPE                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0405 PM    7 NW ORCHARD              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   ANTELOPE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0407 PM    NELIGH                    NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   ANTELOPE                       REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.