Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

AM UPR AIR AND SAT SHOWS YDA/S POTENT SYS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING
OUT THRU WRN LKS. SECONDARY UPSTREAM SYS LOCATED OVR NW NEB THIS
AFTN SHOWING SOME CONV ENHANCEMENT OVR THE BLACK HILLS AND WHICH WILL
BE THE SHRT TERM FOCUS OVERNIGHT.

12Z MODEL DEPICTIONS ON TRACK W/AFOREMENTIONED SYS COMING INTO THE
NRN HALF OF CWA THIS EVENING. INCREASING DPVA ALG W/AT LEAST WK
CVRG ALG RESIDUAL CYC WRAP AROUND MSTR GRADIENT WILL FVR SHRA
DVLPMNT ALG A ONL TO OLU LINE BY EARLY EVE AND THEN A GRADUAL DECAY
TO THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT SHIFTS SE...PERHAPS MAKING IT INTO WRN IA
BFR COMPLETELY DYING OUT...W/ CONTD RESIDUAL WRAP ARND MSTR
AND CLDS LINGERING INTO TUE AS SYS CONTS TO SPIN DOWN.
ON WED...ACTIVE PATTN CONTS AS NEW HGT FALLS SPREADING INTO WRN US
LEAD TO RENEWED SW FLW ALOFT AND RTN OF SRN PLAINS DEEP MSTR
GRADIENT. PROGGED MSTR FLUX/THETA-E ADVTN DELAYED FM PRIOR RUNS AND
TRENDING SLWR SO WILL SHIFT POPS OUT OF WED PD INTO WED NIGHT FM
ABT I-80 SOUTH AND OVR ENTIRE AREA ON THU COINCIDENT W/EJECTION OF
WRN SYS OUT ACRS THE PLAINS.

COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL THU WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE
CURRENT MINOR FLOODING SITU. PENDING EVENT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

IN THE EXTENDED...LEAD SYS COMING THROUGH ON THU FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY
IMPRESSIVE SECONDARY WV AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT WILL
BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THEN.

THANKS TO GID FOR THE COORDINATION

.OMA...NONE.
T

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
545 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER AND PROBABLY EVEN NORTH OF COLUMBUS.
THE ACTIVITY COULD EVEN MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BEFORE DIMINISHING. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CREATES A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

CHERMOK