Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING WESTERN SYSTEM.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WRN BORDER OF CWA. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THIS TIME IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL BORDER INTO ERN SD. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INDICATED ON
WV LOOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER ONES OVER ERN MT AND SWRN
ID. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STORMS FIRING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG DEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDRY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA.

SHORT TERM... THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG DEVELOPING SURFACE
BOUNDRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KS. AFTER A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDERIES INDICATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THINGS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS GFS STALLS OUT A SURFACE BOUNDRY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES INDICATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDRY PLACING
SRN PARTS OF CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY THEN
STAYING WTH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE RIDING DEVELOPING WITH CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLY AREA.

.OMA...NONE.

FOBERT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE
EVENING.  WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR HAD SPREAD NORTH INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON CREATING QUITE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
JET STREAM LEVEL...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO
THE PLAINS...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE
EXPECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT
BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER RISK
OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTLOOK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BEATRICE TO FREMONT TO ONAWA IOWA. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK FRONTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSESSED IN LATER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

CHERMOK