Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES...SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REST OF THIS AFT AND
TON AND TIMING/INTENSITY OF TSRA INTO MID WEEK.  HEAT SUN...HOT
TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.

SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR STLT PICS HIGHLIGHTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING ACRS THE CNTRL U.S. TODAY AND ZONE OF UVV OVER PARTS
OF NEB. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SFC FNT NR LNK AND
CLARINDA.  WEAK CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED HERE WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.  TEMPS FARTHER NORTH WERE IN THE 70S/80S.  18Z
OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DECENT CAPE AROUND 1700 J/KG...AND LI OF -7
AND CIN OF 400 J/KG.  PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.18. GOES 18Z
SOUNDINGS APPEAR OVERDONE COMPARED TO ACTUAL OAX 18Z.  RH APPEARS
TOO HIGH...WITH CAPES OF NEARLY 5K AND LI OF -11.

CURRENT WSR-88D HAS SEVERAL CELLS ON RADAR.  TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE
NRN STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...HOWEVER...THOSE TO THE S HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE SE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROF TO PROCEED EASTWARD TAF/TON
...TAPPING UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH 35-50KT 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES.  MID LEVEL WAA HAS KEPT SOME PRECIP OVR CNTRL AND NE
NEB DURING THE DAY AND CAP SO FAR HAS HELD TSRA BACK.  SPC HAS PUT
PARTS OF THE OAX AREA IN A MODERATE RISK.  COORDINATING LARGE SEVERE
TSRA WATCH TO RUN UNTIL 10PM FOR ONGOING PRECIP AND ADVANCE OF MID
LEVEL WAVE.  PER ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS (ETA/MESOETA/MM5/KF
ETA) MOST ACTIVE PD NOW THRU THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE SCT TSRA
WITH DMG WIND THIS EVENING FOR WATCH AREA...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TOR ALSO POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO PROCEED
ACROSS IOWA.  MAINTAIN SOME CHC PRECIP N AND ERN ZONE LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS TON IN THE UPR 60S AND LOWER 70S. LEFT CHC OR SLIGHT CHC ACRS
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLIES AFFECT AREA AND UVV/MID LVL RH
AVAILABLE AND FARTHER S SUNDAY NIGHT.  AGAIN HOT MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S SUN AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 90 TO 105 DEG RANGE.  WILL MENTION IN ZONES WHERE 95
TO 105 RANGE WILL BE HIT. PATTERN CONTINUES MON AND TUE AND HAVE
GRADIENT OF POPS HIGHS N AND E AND LOWEST SW ZONES.  THIS ALSO
REFLECTED MON AND TUE WITH COOLER TEMPS FCST.

IN LATER PERIODS...06Z GFS HAS MINOR RIPPLES IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. SFC FNT SLIPS S WED
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS TUES AND WED. ECMWF/GFS BUILD RIDGE IN THU AND
FRI WITH FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACRS THE NRN PLNS SAT. TEMPS IN THE
80S FOR THU WITH HOTTER 90S FRI AND SAT.

.OMA...NONE.

ZAPOTOCNY

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATER IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
IOWA

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
939 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    5 SE ELLIOTT              IA   1 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   MONTGOMERY                     REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
942 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 PM    RANDOLPH                  NE   60-70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/05/03   CEDAR                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
947 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 PM    RANDOLPH                  NE   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   CEDAR                          ESTIMATED 75 -80 MPH
                                          WINDS CAUSED POWER
                                          OUTAGE AND DOWNED TREE
                                          LIMBS. REPORTED BY
                                          COOPERATIVE OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 PM    HOSKINS...JUST NORTHWEST  NE   TORNADO
07/05/03   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY NORFOLK
                                          POLICE LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1050 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    NELIGH                    NE   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/05/03   ANTELOPE                       TREES REPORTED DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1015 PM    HOSKINS                   NE   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/05/03   WAYNE                          POWER OUTAGES. REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL.

1030 PM    1 N PETERSBURG            NE   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   BOONE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1031 PM    NORFOLK                   NE   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   MADISON                        TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1035 PM    ALBION                    NE   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   BOONE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1045 PM    THURSTON                  NE   .75 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   THURSTON                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.