Special Marine Warning 13, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
833 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2003

.DISCUSSION...ZONES WERE UPDATED BEFORE 6 PM...NO FURTHER UPDATES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW PASSED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NOT MUCH RAIN. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY WAS VERY
IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER MONTEREY AND SALINAS WERE IN THE RAIN SHADOW
AS THE WINDS WERE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS...IN FACT
MONTEREY HAD A DEW POINT DROP FROM 42 TO 27 WHEN THE DOWNSLOPE
BEGAN. SAN JOSE WAS ALSO DOWNSLOPED TO A SLIGHTLY LESS EXTENT...OFF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW WEST OF PT ARENA.

THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET PER THE 00Z ETA.
THE 00Z ETA DRIVES A VORT MAX ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z ETA BRINGS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE
SHOWERS.H85 WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KTS PER THE OAK RAOB...AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE 00Z ETA IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
AREA...INSTEAD OF KEEPING IT OFFSHORE. THE ETA IS BRINGING A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

MARINE...STRONG UPPER LOW PRODUCING GALE FORCE GUSTS OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS FOR
TONIGHT. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WAVE WATCH
MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB WITH SWELL FORECAST SO FAR...BASICALLY
VERIFYING AS REPORTS FROM BUOY 59 EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED SEAS
NEAR 30 FEET EVERY 17 SECONDS. THE SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT OUR
WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR SWELL DECAY
PROGRAM SHOWS SEAS IN THE MID 20 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...WITH
BREAKERS LIKELY CAUSING SOME SPILL-OVER DURING HIGH TIDE SO COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE. SEA SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT COULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 FEET FOR CONTINUED
HIGH SURF...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TNGT...GALE WARNING...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
TNGT...SCA...SFO AND MRY BAYS.
TNGT AND WED MRNG...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM PT ARENA TO PT
                    PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
TNGT AND WED...HIGH SURF ADVY...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
               AND MRY BAY.

&&

PUBLIC: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
PUBLIC SERVICE: HENDERSON

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