Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
300 PM PST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIP THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE 0.10
TO 0.30 INCH RANGE...WITH A FEW TOTALS APPROACHING HALF AN INCH.
SOLAR HEATING IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE
PRIMARY CLOUD BAND PRODUCED SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A SPOTTER
IN SARATOGA REPORTED SMALL HAIL EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
LICK OBSERVATORY (AT 4300 FT) REPORTED A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN
WITH THE RAIN.  BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON...THE REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF OUR DISTRICT.  ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT WELL OFFSHORE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  BOTH THE 18Z ETA AND 18Z GFS SUGGEST ANY LIGHT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.  MODEL REPRESENTATION AND
TREATMENT OF THESE WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TENDS TO BE
LESS THAN ROBUST...HOWEVER...AND AM THEREFORE GOING TO CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA TONIGHT...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
ENDING MONDAY MORNING.  A STRAY OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED
OUT...BUT GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIME OF ARRIVAL AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING
THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTS.

FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.  BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
PORTION OF OUR CWA...AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SFO BAY
COUNTIES.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER ALL OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE
DEGREE OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LONGER-RANGE MODELS...IS
ONLY FAIR...AND THUS IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  BEST PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERMEDIATE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE ONE
THAT CAME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ONE EARLIER TODAY.

THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING A RETURN OF CLEAR SKIES...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

STS/SFO/LVK/SJC/MRY 3200          BLIER

.SFO...TNGT...SCA FOR SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND
                             MRY BAY.

CAZ005>010-065-074-075-171400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
600 AM PST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CENTRAL
COAST. LARGE WESTERLY SWELLS OF 15 TO 20 FEET PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. (SEE SFOMWSMTR...FZUS76 KMTR FOR ADITIONAL DETAILS).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.