Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Missoula, MT

May 25, 2003Powell County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 25, 2003, 3:11 PM MDT for Powell County, Montana. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2003, 3:11 PM MDT (21:11 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2003, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Powell County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 25, 3:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 42 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -374 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2151 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 252111
SVRMSO
MTC077-252145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
310 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN POWELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 310 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH
  OF ELLISTON...OR 17 MILES EAST OF DEER LODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOSSBURG AT 330 PM MDT

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM. HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED 
AREA.


LAT...LON 4649 11252 4637 11234 4657 11203 4674 11239

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 25, 2:30 PM MDT, 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 2:30 PM MDT, 41 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2003

.SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER
IN RAVALLI COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE WITH RFC GUIDANCE TAKING IT OVER FLOOD STAGE MONDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT COULD HELP RAISE THE LEVELS A LITTLE FASTER.

WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO THE CWA IN THE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KICKING OFF THE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. WILL ADD THE MENTION
OF STRONG WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS. KOLATA

.LONG TERM...NOT TOO FAVORABLE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP.
THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND FLOW ALOFT TURNS WESTERLY AND ZONAL
WHICH DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOWING WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
GFS IS DOING THIS WITHOUT RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EURO SEEMS
MORE IN PHASE WITH THE WARMING AND WILL GO CLOSER TO ITS DEPICTION
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WOULD SHOW VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. ANY FRONTS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT TO
OUR WEST UNTIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIP.  DICKSON

.MSO...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER THIS EVENING INTO
       MONDAY...

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB 050/076 048/078 045/081 39641001
     BBBB 049/076 047/076 045/078 045/080 3722111111
FCA BUB 050/075 048/077 044/079 39632001
     BBBB 047/072 044/072 043/075 043/076 3722111111
POL BUB 051/076 049/077 045/081 39632001
     BBBB 051/074 048/075 047/077 047/079 3722111111
MSO BUB 052/078 050/080 047/083 39632001
     BBBB 050/076 046/075 046/078 046/080 3721111111
HMM BUB 052/080 050/082 047/084 39632001
     BBBB 048/077 046/078 046/080 046/081 3720011111
BTM EUB 050/077 048/079 045/082 39533001
     BBBB 047/074 043/075 041/076 041/078 3720011111
ORO BUB 055/079 053/084 051/086 39520000
     BBBB 055/080 053/081 052/082 052/083 3722100011
GRV BUB 051/073 049/078 050/080 39530000
     BBBB 050/076 048/077 048/077 048/079 3711111111
SMN EUB 051/081 049/083 047/085 39532001
     BBBB 048/077 045/079 043/081 043/082 3720011111

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 2:30 PM MDT, 41 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

IN ADDITION...RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BE RISING QUICKLY AND FLOWING AT HIGH LEVELS THIS MEMORIAL
WEEKEND. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOR FURTHER DETAILS CHECK GTFFLSMSO. FOR
INFORMATION ON THE OTHER RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO CHECK THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENT FOR RIVER LEVELS...OR
GTFRVSMSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR RISING RIVER CONDITIONS PERSISTS AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE RAPID SNOW MELT CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 4:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	24 min
May 25, 4:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	35 min
May 25, 4:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Flathead	43 min
May 25, 4:29 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Lake	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.