Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Missoula, MT

August 12, 2003Powell County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 12, 2003, 7:25 PM MDT for Powell County, Montana. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 12, 2003, 7:25 PM MDT (01:25 UTC)
Expired: Aug 12, 2003, 8:15 PM MDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Powell County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3243 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 130125
SVRMSO
MTC077-130215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
723 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN POWELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 723 PM MDT...SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
DIME SIZE HAIL OVER DEER LODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER REMOTE AREAS.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. FOR YOUR 
PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE 
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA.


LAT...LON 4642 11289 4628 11260 4645 11244 4659 11268

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 12, 2:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 2:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
215 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2003

.SHORT TERM...PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE THIS MORNING...
NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GOTTEN UNSTABLE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THIS AIR MASS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS
MOVING DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST AND STARTS TO SWING INLAND OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BRINGING IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA...BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY COOL TEMPERATURE A
FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. KOLATA

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGAIN INCONSISTENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...THIS FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT MAINLY THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR LONG TERM. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING BRINGS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AN WEST-TO-EAST JET SETS UP
FOR REMAINDER OF LONGTERM FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MWJ

.MSO...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING FOR A COMBINATION OF DRY AND WET
       THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 110 AND
       111...
    ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER
       ZONES 108 AND 109...

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB EBB 052/094 054/097 052/089 39021222
     UUUU 051/081 050/083 050/082 050/082 4120000000
FCA EBB 050/092 052/095 055/090 39122222
     UUUU 050/080 049/082 049/081 049/081 4120000000
POL BBB 053/086 055/089 058/087 39122222
     UUUU 053/082 052/084 052/083 052/083 4120000000
MSO BBB 052/089 054/092 057/089 39222331
     UUUU 053/082 052/087 052/086 052/086 4110000000
HMM BBB 052/093 054/096 059/091 39222331
     BUUU 053/083 052/088 052/087 052/087 4110000000
BTM BBB 047/091 049/094 052/088 39321111
     BUUU 048/080 047/083 047/082 047/082 4110000000
ORO EBB 057/092 059/095 057/091 39111221
     UUUU 056/084 055/086 055/085 055/085 4110000000
GRV BBB 051/089 053/092 051/087 39221331
     UUUU 049/082 048/084 048/083 048/083 4110000000
SMN BBB 051/093 053/096 055/089 39221221
     UUUU 052/081 051/089 051/088 051/088 4100000000

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 12, 6:00 AM MDT, 13 hours 25 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
600 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO A CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST FIRE WEATHER WATCH
(GTFRFWMSO) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HOT DRY PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BREEZY
WEST WINDS...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.