Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Missoula, MT

August 8, 2003Mineral County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 8, 2003, 7:20 PM MDT for Mineral County, Montana. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 8, 2003, 7:20 PM MDT (01:20 UTC)
Expired: Aug 8, 2003, 8:00 PM MDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Mineral County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 146 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3391 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 090120
SVRMSO
MTC061-090200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
720 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL MINERAL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 720 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH
  OF SUPERIOR...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR SUPERIOR AT 725 PM MDT

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA.


LAT...LON 4730 11485 4723 11478 4722 11470 4702 11479
          4704 11494 4705 11511 4709 11505 4721 11503
          4731 11500

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 8, 2:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 2:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 5 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
215 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2003

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
NEAR 45N 130W THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS IT ROTATES...SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE UP ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO EACH DAY. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE LI
VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE ACTIVITY DYING OFF
WITH SUN SET. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SLOW WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE DOES. KOLATA

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF
LOW ALONG THE COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST JET STREAM WILL
CUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MT FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FOCUS OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND
LEMHI COUNTY WHERE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LIES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
LOW DIGS TO THE SOUTH AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DAY...AS THE CUTOFF LOW
OPENS AND SWINGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN A COOLER...BREEZY DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AND DRIER WITH
RIDING OCCURRING TO THE WEST. HENCE...A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY.
FELSCH

.MSO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
       THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES...SOUTHERN 109...110 AND
       111...

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB 054/095 056/098 058/091 39111222
     BEEU 053/084 053/083 051/081 049/081 3022233331
FCA UBB 052/090 053/093 055/089 39111222
     BEBU 050/082 050/081 048/078 044/079 3022233331
POL UBB 061/089 064/094 058/090 39211222
     BEBU 053/083 053/082 051/080 047/081 3022223321
MSO UBB 054/093 056/095 057/091 39211212
     BBBU 052/084 052/083 050/082 047/083 3022223321
HMM UBB 055/094 057/096 058/095 39211112
     BBBU 053/085 053/084 051/081 047/082 3022233321
BTM UBB 049/089 052/093 052/094 39222112
     BBBU 047/083 047/085 045/078 042/078 3022233221
ORO BBB 063/095 064/096 059/093 39122111
     BEBU 058/090 058/089 056/084 054/087 3012233220
GRV UBB 055/092 055/093 057/088 39122221
     BBBU 052/085 052/084 050/078 047/083 3022233220
SMN UBB 052/092 053/093 057/093 39211112
     BBBU 052/085 052/087 050/082 046/081 3022233321

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 8, 10:46 AM MDT, 8 hours 34 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1046 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS WELL AS OVER LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.