Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Missoula, MT

June 19, 2003Ravalli County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 19, 2003, 1:46 PM MDT for Ravalli County, Montana. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2003, 1:46 PM MDT (19:46 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2003, 2:15 PM MDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ravalli County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 19, 1:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1375 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 191946
SVRMSO
MTC081-192015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
146 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN RAVALLI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 146 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SULA...
  OR 29 MILES SOUTH OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER REMOTE AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A
WELL PROTECTED AREA.


LAT...LON 4571 11408 4581 11423 4614 11379 4602 11379
          4602 11369 4596 11364

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 19, 9:45 AM MDT, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 9:45 AM MDT, 4 hours 1 minute before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
945 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2003

UPDATE TO ZONES AND STATE BY 10 AM.

.SHORT TERM...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE QUICKLY AS WE SHOULD REACH OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND REGENERATE CUMULUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTION WILL BE THE ISSUES FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY
HAVE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES SOME 12-16 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...WITH ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES COOLING SOUTHEAST ZONES. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF THIS MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH
AND EAST A BIT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROF
ADVECTS SOME WARMER AIR TO AT LEAST THE BITTERROOT AND MISSOULA
VALLEYS. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE ON TRACK...BUT
FOR AFOREMENTIONED REASONING...WILL UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S
BITTERROOT AND MISSOULA VALLEYS TODAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN ZONES...FROM MISSOULA SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
EXITING THERMAL TROF AND MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE. THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS FROM SPOKANE AND
BOISE THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE
MODIFIED AIR MASS...WITH WET BULB ZEROS BETWEEN 11 AND 12 THOUSAND
FEET. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HANDLED WELL WITH PLACEMENT...AND WILL ADD SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WORDING BUTTE AND SALMON ZONES. MEAD

.LONG TERM...TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AK
DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIF ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
POTENTIAL TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO MID-WEEK. QUESTIONS YET
WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.  BOLDT

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB EEE /084 051/069 044/066 2823444
     BBEE 045/067 048/072 046/068 048/070 049/ 28422344332
FCA EEB /081 050/068 044/062 2833553
     BBEE 040/064 043/068 042/066 043/069 045/ 28322344332
POL EEB /081 052/069 048/063 2844443
     BBEE 047/065 045/070 044/067 045/069 046/ 28332333332
MSO BEE /085 054/069 045/065 2855442
     BBEE 043/067 045/071 045/069 046/072 048/ 28333333332
HMM BEE /085 052/068 044/065 2855443
     BBEE 042/066 043/071 044/069 045/071 047/ 28333333332
BTM TWE /081 049/069 040/063 2866553
     BBEE 038/064 039/067 039/065 040/067 042/ 28333443332
ORO EEE /083 055/074 049/069 2823443
     BBEB 049/069 051/076 052/072 053/076 055/ 28312333322
GRV BEE /076 051/067 044/066 2844443
     BBBB 042/063 044/070 045/068 047/071 048/ 28322333322
SMN TWE /087 053/070 044/068 2866552
     BBBE 042/067 043/072 042/070 043/074 044/ 28223443332

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 19, 1:08 PM MDT, 38 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
108 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER TO ABOUT 7000 FEET...
NEAR THE SAME ELEVATION AS LOGAN PASS IN WEST GLACIER PARK...DURING
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 2:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	43 min
Jun 19, 3:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Granite	50 min
Jun 19, 3:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Powell	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.