Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Missoula, MT

June 10, 2003Powell County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 10, 2003, 4:51 PM MDT for Powell County, Montana. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2003, 4:51 PM MDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2003, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Powell County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 10, 2:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

349 
WUUS55 KMSO 102251
SVRMSO
MTC077-102330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
451 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN POWELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 451 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF ELLISTON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEER LODGE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  OVER ELLISTON BY 500 PM MDT
  3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOSSBURG AT 505 PM MDT

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA.


LAT...LON 4650 11264 4637 11245 4667 11194 4685 11219

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 10, 2:30 PM MDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 2:30 PM MDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.SHORT TERM...THINGS CONTINUE TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A CONVECTIVE...
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WATCHING WATER VAPOR IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
IS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE INDICATING. LATEST
AVN PICKS UP ON THIS IDEA AND DOES NOT BRING THE VORT MAX OVER UNTIL
06Z. CURRENTLY WE ARE GETTING SOME GOOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE GET SOME GOOD FORCING AHEAD OF THE
LOW. ALSO THERE IS DECENT 850MB CONVERGENCE AND CAPE OF OVER 1000
J/KG BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z. ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING STRONG
WINDS WHICH COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...SO WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9Z IN WESTERN MONTANA...AND BY 12Z
JUST ALONG THE DIVIDE. SPC WILL BE PUTTING OUT A WATCH BOX FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND ALL OF WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH 9PM MDT.
KOCH

.WED THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.  A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THIS FLOW
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT RELATIVELY
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. BAUCK

.MSO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 09 PM FOR MTZ001>007-043 AND
       IDZ005>008...

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBE 050/071 048/079 049/075 36521123
     EEEE 049/073 046/076 046/071 049/071 2932223333
FCA BBE 046/068 041/074 046/074 36521123
     BBEE 046/071 044/071 044/070 047/070 2932223333
POL BBE 049/069 043/077 049/075 36521122
     BBEE 049/072 046/074 046/070 049/070 2922223333
MSO BBE 047/069 044/079 048/076 36611122
     BBEE 048/075 047/075 047/073 050/073 2922223333
HMM BBE 049/071 043/080 050/076 36600122
     BBEE 050/075 046/075 046/071 049/071 2922223333
BTM BBE 042/069 038/075 043/075 36600112
     BBEE 043/072 043/072 043/069 046/069 2922333333
ORO BBE 052/075 052/082 054/080 36100122
     BBEE 054/077 052/078 052/075 055/075 2922222222
GRV BBE 047/072 044/076 048/075 36200112
     BBEE 048/072 045/074 045/070 048/070 2922223332
SMN BBB 045/074 041/080 048/077 36200111
     BBEB 048/076 047/075 047/072 050/072 2912223332

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 2:40 PM MDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
240 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF WESTERN MONTANA COUNTIES
AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO COUNTIES EXCEPT LEMHI COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 3:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Lake	50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.