Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Missoula, MT

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
202 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OR...SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER WESTERN MT DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AND THEN WEAKENS. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM MISSOULA SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE.

HYDRO ISSUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR CREEKS IN THE ACTIVE AREA OF CONCERN. IN ADDITION...A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THE SALMON RIVER AT SALMON AND AT
WHITEBIRD...AS THESE AREAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MT. HENCE...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST
MT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER. FELSCH

.LONG TERM...A COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MID WEEK.  A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BRUSH THE REGION...MAINLY NORTHWEST MONTANA. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SNOW MELT SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RIVERS
FALLING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY MAY BE THE COOL
NIGHTS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE MAY EXPAND
SOME EASTWARD AFTER MID WEEK LEADING TO GRADUAL WARMING. BAUCK

.MSO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POWELL...GRANITE...SILVER BOW
       RAVALLI AND LEMHI COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM.
       SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CLEARWATER...IDAHO AND
       LEMHI COUNTIES IN IDAHO AND RAVALLI COUNTY IN MONTANA
       THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
       FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER IN MONTANA
       FLOOD WATCH FOR SALMON RIVER NEAR SALMON AND
       WHITEBIRD..AND THE CLEARWATER...SELWAY AND LITTLE SALMON
       RIVERS IN IDAHO.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB WBB 056/069 047/074 048/072 30462122
     BBBB 041/072 040/072 042/074 039/076 2921111110
FCA WBB 051/066 042/072 044/069 30552122
     BBBB 038/069 036/069 040/071 038/073 2922211110
POL EBB 055/068 047/075 047/071 30552111
     BBBB 041/071 038/071 040/073 040/075 2911111110
MSO EBB 055/069 045/076 048/073 30741111
     BBBB 042/073 039/073 042/075 043/077 2911111110
HMM EBB 056/071 043/076 048/073 30731111
     BBBB 042/073 039/073 042/075 043/077 2911111110
BTM EBB 049/067 040/075 045/071 30431011
     BBBB 037/071 030/071 035/073 037/075 2911100000
ORO BBB 059/079 054/079 053/077 30621100
     UUUU 046/077 045/077 052/082 052/085 2900000000
GRV BBB 053/075 046/074 048/072 30621111
     UUUU 042/072 041/072 047/077 048/079 2911100000
SMN EBB 053/075 044/077 047/074 30620001
     BBBB 042/074 041/074 042/076 043/078 2911100000

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
600 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM MISSOULA TO GRANGEVILLE AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING.

STORMS THAT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP OVER ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND
STREAMS...THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AND FLASH RISES.

PERSONS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR LEVELS AND
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IF THEY BEGIN TO RISE.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER IN WESTERN
MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CLEARWATER...SELWAY AND LITTLE SALMON RIVERS IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
TODAY AND SATURDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THESE RIVERS IN WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO CHECK THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS...OR GTFRVSMSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH
 SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ADDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER MONTANA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS TO WESTERN
MONTANA.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET. JUST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
0215 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0122 PM    SHOUP                     ID   70 MPH WIND GUST
05/30/03   LEMHI                          COULD NOT STAND UP IN THE
                                          WIND

SMD