Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
415 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

...AMENDED TO ADD TORNADO WATCH...

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
415 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS EAST TN
THIS MORNING ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO POUR INTO THE AREA. FAIRLY HIGH
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  SPC HAS THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK ATTM...BUT SEVERE
WX IN MIDDLE TN IS MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA...REACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE BY SUNRISE. HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND SOME TORNADOES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED WITH THE STORMS IN MIDDLE TN.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY WET THRU FRI AS THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS THRU THE TN VALLEY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES JUST DOES NOT WANT TO
BUDGE...MAYBE SOME HOPE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRELIM NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION ONLY:
CHA   79  66  81  65 /  90  80  80  50
TYS   77  65  78  63 /  90  80  80  40
TRI   72  60  77  59 /  90  70  80  40
OQT   76  65  78  64 /  90  80  80  40

.MRX...
NC...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.
TN...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1000 AM EDT FOR MOST ZONES.
VA...NONE.

BS
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

MASS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT E THRU MID MS VLY TWD THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE FIRING IN DECENT AREA OF LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WAA VCNTY WM FNT WITH EXCELLENT UPR LVL
SUPPORT. WM FNT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY N ACROSS MAINLY
WRN SECTIONS OF FA LATER TONITE AS LOW LVL FLO INCREASES AHD OF LO
PRES MOVG E ACROSS NRN MO. BELIEVE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WL
DECREASE TO A LARGE DEGREE BY 12Z MON. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY
STILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AS THEY BUILD ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
TWD 08Z MON. WILL TWEAK POPS UP A BIT ACROSS WRN ZONES FOR THIS AREA
OF PRECIP. REMAINDER OF FCST IN THE BALLPARK.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL RETREAT
ALLOWING TROUGH TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
INITIAL WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FIRST
PERIOD. MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO PASS
THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE SECOND PERIOD. THIS COULD
REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANYTHING SEVERE...ALTHOUGH MORNING
TIMING MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO WARRANT MENTION. BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEND TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN
THE FIRST PERIOD...AND COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE SECOND PERIOD.

LONGER TERM...UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE ACROSS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEK...
BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH NO CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LENGTHY DRY PERIODS.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:
CHA   62  79  65  81 /  50  90  60  50
TYS   61  77  64  79 /  50  90  60  50
TRI   55  72  59  77 /  50  90  60  60
OQT   61  77  64  79 /  50  90  60  50

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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
1005 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TENDING TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AM INCLINED
TO REMOVE LATE WORDING FOR PRECIP TIMING SINCE GFS IS PROJECTING
PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 18Z.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LCM

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NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-050827-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
413 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (MONDAY)...

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE.
WIND PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL COME IN TWO WAVES ONE
EARLY TODAY AND A SECOND TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.
AND IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

SON