Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
320 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SHOULD
AFFECT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN A SHORT TIME ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE SEVERE EARLY
FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WITH LIFT INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE AS THE DAY HEATS UP.

LONGER TERM...FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT THE
HIGH LIKELY POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WITH
CHANCE WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DRY BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN...WILL KEEP WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW. MODELS DEPICT DECENT
MOISTURE RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:
CHA   72  88  70  85 /  40  70  70  50
TYS   71  87  68  83 /  40  70  70  50
TRI   69  84  67  81 /  50  70  70  50
OQT   71  86  68  83 /  50  70  70  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
855 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING IN
FORECAST EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. 06Z RUN OF MESOETA
INDICATING LIFT BEGINNING THIS MORNING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MSAS
INDICATING INSTABILITY ALREADY -2 TO -4 ACROSS AREA WHERE SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY
MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW VIRGINIA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST TN. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.

TD

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
350 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SOME TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.  FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 2500-3000 J/KG.  ALSO...NOTED THAT
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH BE UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT READ QUAD OF A
300 MB JET EXITING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FROPA THEN RACE EAST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE UPPED
CHANCES TO 70-80 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE DUE TO THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT.

FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

FCSTID =   15
CHA   90  72  88  71 /  40  30  80  70
TYS   89  71  86  69 /  40  30  80  70
TRI   85  68  84  67 /  50  40  80  70
OQT   89  71  86  69 /  40  30  80  70

DH
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
930 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

AREA PWS AROUND 125% OF NORMAL WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTHWEST.
INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT. TRIGGERS ARE MISSING
BUT OLD BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENUF TO LIFT A COUPLE OF CELLS OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIONS JUST W OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU IS UNDERDONE BY MODELS.
LATEST RUC SHIFTS LINGERING ACTIVITY EAST. WILL GO CHC POPS
SOUTHWEST AND KEEP SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL OTHERS. WITH DPS IN THE MID
70S SOUTHERN AREAS WILL RANGE SOME MIN TEMPS UPWARD.

SON
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NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
550 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY)...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
ALLOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STAY TUNED OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    MEADOWVIEW                VA   WIND DAMAGE
07/09/03   WASHINGTON                     SEVERAL TREES DOWN
                                          BETWEEN MEADOWVIEW AND
                                          GLAD SPRINGS.  REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.