Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
234 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KFSD AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK INTO NW
IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
NW AND SE OF THE LOW. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST OVER EASTERN NE
AND WESTERN IA AND FAR SW MN. BELIEVE THIS IS WHERE MUCH OF THE
ACTION WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FAR NORTHERN MN IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS THESE TWO LOWS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP DEVELOPING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE BETTER H8-H3 THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IS INDICATED AND AMPLE H8-H7
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST. A COOL FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A COUPLE OF DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS ARE THEN IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE CONFUSED LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. 12Z
AVN HANGS THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WILL KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVING BACK IN ON MONDAY.

.MSP...NONE.

RAH

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW ULM...TO THE TWIN CITIES AND
NEAR EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN.  SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EAST TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT OF FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0411 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    ELROSA                    MN   1.00 IN HAIL
07/14/03   STEARNS

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0503 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    3 SE ST CLOUD             MN   0.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   SHERBURNE                      REPORTED AT ST CLOUD
                                          AIRPORT BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0448 PM    4 ESE ROCKVILLE           MN   0.88 IN HAIL
07/14/03   STEARNS                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0440 PM    5 SW ST JOSEPH            MN   1.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   STEARNS                        HAIL COVERED GROUND.
                                          LEAVES STRIPPED. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC.

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0724 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0716 PM    SLEEPY EYE                MN   TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
07/14/03   BROWN                          ONLY MOMENTARILY ACCORDING
                                          TO TRAINED SPOTTER

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0740 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0733 PM    2 S NEW ULM               MN   TORNADO REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER
07/14/03   BROWN

AJZ