Special Marine Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
253 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

KEEP THE UMBRELLAS AND RAIN BOOTS HANDY AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROTATING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE
PRESSURES WERE LOWERING OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON THE WESTERN TIP OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS RETURNING NORTHWARD UP INTO LOUISIANA.
AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...QUITE A LARGE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BACK WEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...ORGANIZES INTO A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF RAIN OCCURRED TODAY WHICH WOULD OFFSET INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INTENSIFYING 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
JET TONIGHT COULD HELP TO ENERGIZE STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION SHOWS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY RECEIVING 1 TO ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES SINCE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES TO RAIN
SOAKED GROUND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THE WESTERN
SECTIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-65..INCLUDING BALDWIN COUNTY TONIGHT. AS
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WEATHER IMPROVES LATE SATURDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...LOOKING TO BRING SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NOT OVERLY COLD
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXTENDED...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS NATIONS HEARTLAND DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.

MARINE...WILL LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASING
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB BB 057/065 040/065 049 10+20
PNS BB 061/068 043/063 050 10+40
DTS TB 062/067 044/062 053 10+90
GZH BB 058/069 039/064 046 10+30
2R0 BB 056/058 035/064 048 10+00
61A BB 057/065 035/064 046 10+20=

.MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
.AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALZ051>055-061>064.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GMZ630-650-
      670.
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GMZ655-675.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
225 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.  THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ALABAMA COUNTIES...GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65...INCLUDING BALDWIN COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT ON TOP OF THE 1
TO 2 INCHES THAT FELL TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.