Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FINALLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES NEAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COAST BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENERGY FROM SUBTLE AND
HARD TO DETECT VORTICITY MAXIMUM / SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION WILL HELP TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPES EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE AFTER
SUNSET.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. MAV GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED...H50 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN
2/3RDS CONUS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS AS EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WITH H85
DEWPOINTS 14-16C ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SCATTERED CHANCE DAYS 4
THROUGH 7 WITH DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGES EMBEDDED IN
UPPER FLOW...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVENTION.

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS ADVERTISING STRONG WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DEVELOPS A TIGHT
COASTAL GRADIENT. NOT TO CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...
SO DROPPED SPEEDS ABOUT 10 KTS ACROSS THE BOARD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH H50
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     74 90 74 90 / 30 40 20 40
PENSACOLA  74 90 75 90 / 30 40 20 40
DESTIN     77 88 77 88 / 30 40 20 40
EVERGREEN  70 90 73 91 / 20 30 20 40
WAYNESBORO 74 93 74 91 / 20 30 20 40
CAMDEN     72 90 75 92 / 20 30 20 40

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22/01

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STORMS.

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

SCATTERED ...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES TODAY.

FLZ002>006-172000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
154 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MILLIGAN TO NEAR PACE...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...CRESTVIEW...PACE...
CRESTVIEW AIRPORT...HAROLD...MULAT...BAGDAD...AVALON BEACH AND
BELFOREST THROUGH 300 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

ALZ063-171930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
201 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF BAYOU LA BATRE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BAYOU LA BATRE
THROUGH 230 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL TO MARBLE SIZE...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THIS STORM COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ALZ064-FLZ002-006-172100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR BALDWIN...OKALOOSA AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF WRIGHT TO NEAR FOLEY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WRIGHT...SHALIMAR...MARY ESTHER...CINCO BAYOU...PENSACOLA NAVAL
BASE...PENSACOLA BEACH AND FORT PICKENS THROUGH 400 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.  PEA TO MARBLE SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

ALZ061-063-172200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF SEMMES TO SARARLAND TO SOUTH OF MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BIG CREEK
LAKE...SNOW AND TANNER WILLIAMS ROADS...SEVEN HILLS...BIG
CREEK LAKE DAM AND TANNER WILLIAMS THROUGH 500 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN .

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER
COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE
CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ALZ051-MSZ067-172345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
605 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF MT STERLING TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
EUCUTTA...AND MOVING SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BUTLER...LAND...MT STERLING...HIWANNEE...NEEDHAM...WHISTLER AND
EVANSBORO THROUGH 645 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL.

ALTHOUGH BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING...FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

ALZ053-055-056-180000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CONECUH...MONROE AND
CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST WEST OF ALLEN TO NEAR NICHBURG...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...PERDUE HILL...
MEXIA...WALKER SPRINGS...REPTON...MANILLA...MANISTEE AND BARLOW BEND
THROUGH 700 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING...FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.