Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

WILL UPDATE ZONES AROUND 1100 AM AND TAKE OUT MENTION OF MORNING IN
FORECAST.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH PART OF CWA. UPPER AIR FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FLOW.  THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH.  WILL MAKE POPS 50
PERCENT ALL AREAS.  ALSO AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
AREA AND IT WONT TAKE A LOT OF LIFT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED IN UPPER AIR CHARTS THIS MORNING FROM CUBA
TO SOUTH OF MOBILE.  THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY.

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

01/

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STORMS.

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

SCATTERED ...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES TODAY.

FLZ002>006-172000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
154 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MILLIGAN TO NEAR PACE...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...CRESTVIEW...PACE...
CRESTVIEW AIRPORT...HAROLD...MULAT...BAGDAD...AVALON BEACH AND
BELFOREST THROUGH 300 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

ALZ063-171930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
201 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF BAYOU LA BATRE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BAYOU LA BATRE
THROUGH 230 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL TO MARBLE SIZE...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THIS STORM COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ALZ064-FLZ002-006-172100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

...THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR BALDWIN...OKALOOSA AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF WRIGHT TO NEAR FOLEY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WRIGHT...SHALIMAR...MARY ESTHER...CINCO BAYOU...PENSACOLA NAVAL
BASE...PENSACOLA BEACH AND FORT PICKENS THROUGH 400 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.  PEA TO MARBLE SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.