Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OUT OF LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE GULF COAST FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE...
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES...ON OUT INTO THE GULF WATERS. A CHANGE TO
A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOOKING UPPER AIR PATTERN IS COMING. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT MINS INTO THE
60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS
WE WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE HOLD ITS GRIP OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. COMPRESSIONAL SINKING AND WARMING ALOFT FROM THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOCUSES ON
INCREASED HEAT AS THERMOMETERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE 90S.
A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. WILL RE-INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL ZONE
BRINGING A RETURN TO DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MARINE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS AS WE EXPECT WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BRIEF BUILD IN
SEAS LATE THIS WEEKEND...DROPPING OFF INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE

FIRE...NO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. RH LOWERS HEADING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. NOT ANTICIPATING TO MEET ANY
CRITICAL CRITERIA THOUGH. /10

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     72 89 71 92 / 70 80 00 00
PENSACOLA  74 88 72 91 / 70 80 00 00
DESTIN     76 87 73 89 / 50 80 00 00
EVERGREEN  67 89 65 93 / 50 50 00 00
WAYNESBORO 70 89 67 93 / 50 20 00 00
CAMDEN     67 89 65 93 / 20 20 00 00

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  THERE WILL BE THE USUAL RISK OF LIGHTNING
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.  THE HEAVY
RAINS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING TODAY.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF BRIEF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS.

OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE OR OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
MUCH DIMINISHED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY.