Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CWA NORTHWARD TO THE CAPE. FARTHER NORTH...OFFSHORE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD RESTRICT SEA BREEZE OR HOLD WIND SHIFT
OFFSHORE. EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVERGENCE OVER FAR
INTERIOR AND ALONG LOWER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH SW STEERING
FLOW...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TO BOATERS AGAIN WILL BE STRONG STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADD MENTION INTO HWO TO INDICATE THIS AND
ALSO INTO STORM WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REST OF PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTN.

EXTENDED...NEXT MON THROUGH WED...RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHUNTED BACK
SOUTH AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENS
UPPER TROFFING INTO THE SE U.S.  WHAT THIS MEANS FOR EC FL IS A
RETURN TO THE EAST SIDE OF PENINSULA BEING THE FAVORED AREA FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EAST COAST.

.MLB...NONE.

SPRATT/GLITTO

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
232100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORMATION
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL STORM FORMATION WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AS THE SEA BREEZES TAKES SHAPE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES AND INTERACTS WITH STORMS NEAR THE
COAST.

RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS. MOVE INDOORS
QUICKLY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM. STAY INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE LAST THUNDER IS HEARD TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING THREAT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLANDS...AND INTO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY RAIN. WATERSPOUTS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. PLAN AHEAD
AND WATCH FOR STORMS MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY. RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
...HAIL...HIGH WINDS...WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING...TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044-045-144-231745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
110 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL LAKE COUNTY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST WEST OF UMATILLA TO LEESBURG
TO WEST OF CLERMONT AND STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO DADE CITY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN ORANGE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY 3PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
APPROACH OF THESE STORMS AND HEAD INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.