Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY RACED EAST
FROM THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS PRIMED FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH STORM MOTION CONCENTRATING ALONG THE EAST COAST
CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LIGHTNING UNTIL
DUSK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WED AND THURS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM FL
STRAITS TO ACROSS SOCEN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL IN TURN
LIFT NORTH TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THURS. PWATS WILL
LOWER A BIT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WED...BUT BY THURSDAY
THE MESOETA/GFS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN SPREADING MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE (TD 6 REMNANTS). WHILE A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANT BE DISCOUNTED...NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF RIDGE
AXIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE A BIT AND MID LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY...SO MAY NOT BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AS PAST FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP
POPS IN SCT CAT IN THIS TIME FRAME...A LITTLE LOWER IN SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS WED...THEN POPS IN ALL AREAS A BIT HIGHER THURS DUE TO
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM TROPICAL WAVE. OF COURSE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS WAVE AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD
TO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...12Z GFS RUN INDICATES RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM SELY FRI TO EASTERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS OCCURS. HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER WESTERN SIDE OF PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES BEST NEAR THE
EAST COSAT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FOCUS SHIFTING INLAND.

EXTENDED...NEXT MON AND TUES...UPPER TROF DEEPENING INTO THE SE
STATES WILL DISPLACE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST SIDE OF PENINSULA WILL AGAIN BECOME
FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EAST COAST ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION CHANGES
WILL BE DICTATED BY NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BE
MAIN HAZARD TO BOATERS AGAIN ON WED...THEN OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS
WILL BE FAVORED HEADING THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
FARTHER NORTH.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 073/091 073/091 073 343
MCO BB 073/092 073/091 073 343
MLB BB 074/091 075/090 074 342
VRB BB 074/091 075/089 074 342

.MLB...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/GLITTO

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
222100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE...

SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE
EAST COAST DUE TO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
BOATERS ARE URGED TO TAKE SAFE HARBOR BEFORE STORMS APPROACH THEIR
AREA.

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER
...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. MOVE INDOORS
QUICKLY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM. STAY INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES
PAST THE LAST THUNDER IS HEARD TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING HAZARD.

ALSO...WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 MPH...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
THEY PASS. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
INTERSECTIONS AND PARKING LOTS. MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY. RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
...HAIL...HIGH WINDS...WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING...TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PENDERGRAST

FLZ144-221645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG LIGHTNING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL MOVING TOWARD LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1153 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LIGHTNING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
FROM THE VILLAGES SOUTH TO MASCOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

PERSONS OUTDOORS IN LAKE COUNTY SHOULD MAVE INDOORS TO A SAFE
LOCATION.

JP

FLZ045-046-144-221800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL OVER CLERMONT. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
OTHER STRONG STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
ATTRACTIONS AREAS AND THE WESTERN PART OF ORLANDO.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE WEKIWA SPRINGS STATE PARK.

DECKER

FLZ053-221945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
303 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ABOUT TO CROSS LAKE KISSIMMEE AND ENTER WESTERN
OSCEOLA COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD HOLOPAW AND DEAR PARK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTIES.

IF THE OSCEOLA COUNTY STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ147-222030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 5 MILES SOUTH
OF LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS VIERA...ROCKLEDGE...MERRITT ISLAND
AND CAPE CANAVERAL.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.