Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2003

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE S CSTL COUNTIES INTO THE LATE AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BRZ INCHES INLAND FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING WITH SW STEERING FLOW.

THU...MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS HIGHER MOISTURE BAND ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS ON THU TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES ON THE
ETA AND 2.2 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS. E CST BRZ SHOULD BE HELD
BACK ACROSS NRN SECTIONS BUT THINK ENOUGH ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS IN SW FLOW FOR LIKELY POPS. ON THU ACROSS SRN
AREAS...WILL SEE GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE E COAST BRZ FAVORING
THE CSTL COUNTIES FROM SRN BREVARD TO MARTIN WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
POPS. SHOULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS NRN SECTIONS WHICH WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS.

FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PWATS DECREASE A BIT AND LOW LVL WINDS LIGHTEN SO EXPECT
MORE TYPICAL SEA BRZ CONVECTION DAY WITH A DRIFT BACK TWD THE EAST
COAST ESPEC NORTH OF THE CAPE. CURRENT 40 POPS CLOSE TO ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP. HIGHS FOR THE FOURTH WILL BE AROUND 90 MOST
AREAS...UPPER 80S FOR THE BEACHES.

EXTENDED...FOR SAT AND SUN...HIGHER MOISTURE WILL WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL FL AS TUTT LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SRN GULF. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP UP INTERIOR POPS A NOTCH BUT WILL LEAVE AS
IS FOR NOW WITH MORE TYPICAL SEA BRZ REGIME FOCUSING ACTIVITY IN THE
INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE EACH DAY.

MARINE...WILL KEEP WINDS AT A SOLID 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN LEG
TONIGHT INTO THU AS TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO EXTRATROPICAL BILL MOVING TWD THE MID ATLC
COAST. FOR THE FOURTH...WILL DROP WINDS BACK TO 10-15 KNOTS NORTH
AND 10 KNOTS SOUTH. SAT AND SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
WITH RIDGE NEARBY.

PRELIM..
DAB TB 073/089 073/090 074 15463
MCO TB 074/089 073/091 074 15463
MLB TB 074/089 074/089 075 15363
VRB TB 074/090 074/090 074 15363

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT/MOSELY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
022000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2003

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY.  STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO AROUND 2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALSO... SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. STORMS
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS STORMS NEAR THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY.  THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH INLAND
AREAS BECOMING THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED RELAY ANY REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

MRV