Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Melbourne, FL

June 2, 2003Brevard County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 2, 2003, 6:05 PM EDT for Brevard County, Florida. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 2, 2003, 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired
Jun 2, 2003, 6:45 PM EDT
In force
40 min
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Brevard County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-06-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3214 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-06-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3214 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
487 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

192 
WUUS52 KMLB 022205
SVRMLB
FLC009-022245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
603 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY
  IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER HIGHWAY 50 ABOUT 5 MILES WEST           
  OF TITUSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR PORT SAINT JOHN AT 615 PM EDT
  NEAR SHARPES AT 620 PM EDT
  
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS
PATH...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2860 8081 2848 8096 2808 8060 2825 8039

$$

JP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 2, 1:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 2, 1:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
135 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003

.DISCUSSION...
BASIC MOISTENING PATTERN AS BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE GONE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH.

ONE DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SEEMS TO BE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS NOT FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD QUITE AS FAST...WHICH
IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS INHIBIT MAJOR
NORTHWARD MIGRATIONS.

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...CUMULUS LOOKING MUCH MORE DEVELOPED THAN
YESTERDAY AND ALREADY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE
NORTH...WITHOUT THE HELP OF A SEA BREEZE.  EXPECT THAT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INCREASED BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS...WHICH I PLAN TO CARRY FOR THE EVENING PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

TUE/WED...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  GFS DEVELOPS LOW ALONG GULF
COAST WHICH LOOKS TO BE A PRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...ALTHOUGH
ETA ALSO SHOWS SURFACE TO STEERING LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING.

GFS POPS LOOK LOW GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WITH TROUGH ALOFT TO
OUR WEST.  LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT
INHIBITING FACTOR.  ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...IF THIS
INDEED COMES TO FRUITION.  WILL STAY WITH CURRENT 40 POPS...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GFS AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN ETA/NGM.  EXPECT
THESE NUMBERS MAY GET BUMPED UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

THU-MON...GFS HOLDS ONTO THE WEAK LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THU...
WHICH PREVENTS RIDGE AXIS FROM BUILDING NORTHWARD...THEN IT MAKES IT
TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...OR SO...FOR FRI/SAT.  12Z RUN THEN NUDGES
IT BACK TO THE SOUTH SUN/MON AS NEXT NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST.

DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR SUPPRESSION MECHANISMS SO WILL STAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  POSITION OF
RIDGE WILL CAUSE SOME DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN WHICH AREAS GET THE
RAIN...AND WHEN...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL COVERAGE.

.MARINE...ETA WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT...EVEN HIGHER THAN GFS AT TIMES.  WILL GENERALLY STAY 15 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTH LEG DURING THIS TIME...CLOSE TO THE UKMET...WHICH
DOES NOT DEPICT THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE
SEEN BY THE ETA/GFS.  THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MAINLY
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW MAY STAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS RATHER STRONGLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB TT 073/090 074/088 073 2424
MCO TT 073/090 074/089 073 2424
MLB TT 074/090 074/088 074 2424

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 2, 10:00 AM EDT, 8 hours 5 minutes before
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-022000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AS WELL AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE PENINSULA.  STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH.

BECAUSE OF SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME STRONG.  IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...A FEW COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL.  QUICK DOWNPOURS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR
COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RL

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.