Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

15Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING TAKING HOLD ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH
PCP WATER DOWN TO 1.32. KMLB DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT HAS NO
CONVECTION ALONG IT AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE OKEE BREEZE. HI-RES VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SEA BREEZE LURKING OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY...FIGHTING THE
OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST
SHORTLY. WELL SEE A COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE LATER THIS
EVENING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BUT DRY ATM WILL ONLY
PERMIT ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE SPOKES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
TROUGHS...CANNOT CALL THEM COLD FRONTS...INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ON FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM...AS MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALREADY BE LOW
AND PASSAGE OF THESE SFC TROUGHS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE DRY AIR. DO
NOT HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN 20% FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED EACH DAY DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...ALLOWING EVEN THE BEACHES TO REACH 90 BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION MOVES ONSHORE. WELL SEE THE EAST AND WEST COAST
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE EACH DAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY FRI WHEN THERE MAY NOT BE AN EAST COAST BREEZE)
BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE QUITE
LOW.

MARINE...FNTL BNDRY TO MOVE INTO AREA FROM THE N ON WED WILL SHIFT
WNDS AROUND TO THE NW BRIEFLY AS BNDRY STALLS AND WEAKENS. SOME
LONGER PD SWELLS INDICATED AT 41010 AND MAY IMPACT AREA BEACHES IN
THE COMING DAYS. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT HAZARD.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 068/091 068/091 068 1112
MCO BB 069/092 070/091 070 1112
MLB BB 071/090 069/090 070 1112=  28

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE...CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BREEZE AND
SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE INTERACT OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN IN PAST
DAYS DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
FROM DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND OR CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SMALL HAIL. IF YOU
ARE OUTSIDE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STORMS AND
MOVE INSIDE WHEN YOU FIRST HEAR THUNDER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS EVENING. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO GET OFF THE WATER SHOULD A STORM APPROACH YOUR AREA.

OCEAN SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY. A GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF
THE OUGOING TIDE THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD FOR BEACH GOERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LONG WEEKEND. BE SURE TO CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER...AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE
GUARD.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PB