Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

BUSY WITH SVR WX THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND RUC H3 STREAMLINES
SHOW CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS AL WITH DIFFLUENCE/
DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA. AT
THE SFC...BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND BUILDING BACK
IN TWD THE COAST. DRY AIR WITH COLD TEMPS IN THE MID LVL TEMPS HAS
ALLOWED HAIL STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT AND S/W AND VORT MAX MOVING NE ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLD SVR POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SFC BOUNDARY HAS MOVED DOWN THE COAST THROUGH MLB...BUT NOT
TO VRB. WINDS WILL VEER LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES TWD N FL.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT STORMS OVERNIGHT ESPEC NRN LEG.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
142300-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THIS EVENING:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4
PM...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP MUCH EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY AND BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER INLAND BY THIS EVENING. A
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR AFTER 4 PM. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS
TO PRODUCE COIN SIZED HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING SUCH STRONG STORMS WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
ALREADY RESIDES...ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...INTERIOR ST LUCIE AND INTERIOR
MARTIN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...DEFINED AS 12 OR MORE
CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES PER MINUTE.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARINE INTERESTS...
SHOULD KEEP ALERT FOR APPROACHING STORMS. OPEN PLACES SUCH AS
BEACHES AND GOLF COURSES ARE NOT SAFE FROM THE LIGHTNING DANGER
DURING STORMS...NOR ARE THE OPEN AIR SHELTERS AT MANY OUTDOOR
RECREATION AREAS. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR WEATHER UPDATES DURING THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR OR SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

A PERSISTENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR
COUNTY TODAY.

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

720 PM     BASINGER                  FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/14/03   OKEECHOBEE                     REPORTED BY OKEECHOBEE
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
853 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

827 PM     10S SAINT CLOUD           FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/14/03   OSCEOLA                        REPORTED BY FLORIDA
                                          HIGHWAY PATROL ON FLORIDA
                                          TURNPIKE

FLZ041-044>047-053-141-144-147-150330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

AT 915 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND SAINT CLOUD.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE ALSO STARTING TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN ORANGE AND
OFFSHORE COCOA BEACH.  SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CONTINUED OFFSHORE OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.

THROUGH 11 PM...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...AND REMAIN STRONG...
DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE MAIN AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM EAST ORLANDO TO EAST
SEMINOLE...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTH BREVARD. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

932 PM     4SE ORLANDO INTL AIRPORT FL    1.00 INCH HAIL
03/14/03   ORANGE                         ON NARCOOSSEE RD 4 MILES
                                          SE OF ORLANDO
                                          INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
                                          REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER.

1010 PM    ORLANDO                   FL   0.75 INCH HAIL
03/14/03   ORANGE                         SR 417 AND EAST/WEST
                                          EXPRESSWAY IN METRO
                                          ORLANDO REPORTED BY OFF
                                          DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 PM    1N GOLDENROD              FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/14/03   SEMINOLE                       JUST NORTH OF GOLDENROD.
                                          REPORTED BY SEMINOLE
                                          COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT.