Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

...ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY DRY...BUT MOISTURE INCREASING...

THRU TONIGHT...SPECIAL 16Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS BONE DRY ATM...0.96
PCP WATER. AVN AND MESOETA ARE BULLISH ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A
RESULT OF EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION THIS EVENING (6-8PM) OVER
THE INTERIOR. BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNLESS WE GET SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION. WELL...THAT MAY BE HAPPENING AS RUC SHOWS AXIS
OF SMALL BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PENINSULA
MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW.
BOTH MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT H7 AND
H85 IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
CONVECTION THIS EVE OVER THE INTERIOR WHEN THE BREEZES COLLIDE.
STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RAPID...WITH ISOLATED CELLS BECOMING
SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS.
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLC COAST. ONCE CONVECTION
GETS GOING IT MAY BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS WE BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW HIGH AVN MOS (MAV) POPS. THREAT OF
SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE BREEZE
COLLISION.

FORECAST...H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVER MS/AL WILL GENERATE LOWER SFC
PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE GA/SC COAST BACK TOWARD THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL VEER OUR WINDS TO THE S-SE
SAT. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL LIMIT HEATING BUT DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND SPOKE OF VORT ENERGY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL FOLLOW HIGH
MAV POPS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING TO GET A WEAK EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD HELP PULSE UP CONVECTION AS STORMS
COLLIDE WITH THAT BOUNDARY.

AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD S/W SWING BY TO THE NORTH...SOME DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA SAT NIGHT. SO WILL GO 40% NORTH AND
50% FAR SOUTH MAINLY FOR EVE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD SUN AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND MOVES NE ACROSS NEW ORLEANS. MORE HEATING AND WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW A MORE DISCRETE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO
PROPAGATE INLAND AND COLLIDE WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE...BUT
A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION VS.
SAT.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE LATEST EXTENDED AVN FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN
SO WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE TUE-FRI FORECAST. IT STILL WANTS
TO BRING A FRONT INTO FL WED NIGHT BUT NOW STALLS IT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THU AND FRI SO WE MAY BE SEEING THE MODEL SLOWING DOWN THIS
NEXT FRONT AS EXPECTED. NOTICE THAT THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EVEN WEAKER (1013 MB) THAN THE LAST RUN. SO FULLY EXPECT THAT FUTURE
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL BACK ON TIMING. POPS ARE LOW
(25%-35%) SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

MARINE...SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SAT. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO
THE S-SE TONIGHT AND SAT AND INCREASING. WILL GO 15-20 KNOTS NORTH
LEG AND 15 KNOTS SOUTH LEG. FLOW VEERS OFFSHORE SUN AND WEAKENS AS
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AL.

PRELIM CCF NUMBERS...
DAB TB 067/081 064/083 064 7843
MCO TB 066/083 065/085 065 7843
MLB TB 068/082 067/084 066 6843=   28

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
142300-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THIS EVENING:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4
PM...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP MUCH EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY AND BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER INLAND BY THIS EVENING. A
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR AFTER 4 PM. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS
TO PRODUCE COIN SIZED HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING SUCH STRONG STORMS WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
ALREADY RESIDES...ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...INTERIOR ST LUCIE AND INTERIOR
MARTIN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...DEFINED AS 12 OR MORE
CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES PER MINUTE.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARINE INTERESTS...
SHOULD KEEP ALERT FOR APPROACHING STORMS. OPEN PLACES SUCH AS
BEACHES AND GOLF COURSES ARE NOT SAFE FROM THE LIGHTNING DANGER
DURING STORMS...NOR ARE THE OPEN AIR SHELTERS AT MANY OUTDOOR
RECREATION AREAS. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR WEATHER UPDATES DURING THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR OR SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

A PERSISTENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR
COUNTY TODAY.

KELLY