Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SLIDE
EAST...BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARDS MORNING. ETA IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. MUCH OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A 20% POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...SILENT
10% SOUTH FOR RESIDUAL ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WED-THU...H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE REACHING THE GA COAST
WED AFTN. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30% ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...AND 40% FOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY. SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING STORMS TOWARD THE
VOLUSIA COAST...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER THU AS WE COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

FRI-SUN...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW
OVER KY/TN FRI. ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE ACROSS N FL FRI BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. TRYING
TO TIME SHORT WAVES THIS FAR OUT IS A TRICKY BUSINESS...AND IT COULD
BE THAT SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE STORMIER DAY IF THE MODEL IS
TOO FAST. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS FRI TO 40% AND
ACROSS ALL SECTIONS SAT TO 30%.

MON-TUE...BIG CHANGE IN THE 00Z EXTENDED AVN THIS MORNING NOW
SHOWING 992 MB LOW OVER TORONTO SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME COOLING AND A LOT OF DRYING. IF
TRUE...THIS WOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL START OF THE
DRY SEASON. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS COOL AS MOS GUIDANCE AND WILL
KEEP WINDS N/NE. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SFC HIGH OVER TX...MAY
NEED A MORE NW WIND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW...BUT
WILL INCREASE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
MAY BACK WINDS TO THE N/NE AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU
WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
DAB EB 069/084 069/085 068 24121
MCO BB 070/086 069/087 069 23121
MLB BB 072/086 071/085 071 13121
VRB BB 072/086 071/086 071 12121

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....KELLY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
072100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
919 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
TODAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TAKE SHELTER
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM...AS LIGHTNING CASUALTIES OFTEN OCCUR
WELL IN ADVANCE OR WELL BEHIND THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL.

PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF AROUND 4 FEET WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. BEACH PATROLS HAD
TO RESCUE DOZENS OF SWIMMERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IF YOU PLAN TO
SWIM IN THE OCEAN TODAY...CHECK WITH THE LIFEGUARDS ABOUT OCEAN
HAZARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. DO NOT SWIM WHERE NO LIFEGUARD
IS PRESENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS INTO LATE WEEK. RIP CURRENTS TEND TO BE MOST NUMEROUS
AND STRONGEST DURING THE TIME OF OUTGOING TIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LATE WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.