Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2003

RIDGE AXIS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA ATTM WITH CONTD HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IN PLACE. PCP WATER VALUE AT XMR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT SNDG IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE. WITH RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FURTHER N WOULD INITIALY EXPECT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER SEA BREEZE
ONSET...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN MCV ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED BY RUC
TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTN. WHILE SOME LIFT MAY
BE PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE IT WILL ALSO DELAY HEATING AND
EVENTUAL PROGRESS OF SEA BREEZE.

MDL SNDGS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL WARMING THRU 18Z BUT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING THRU THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. EXACT MID LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE HOWEVER IS LIKELY NOT HANDLED WELL BY MLDS DUE TO PRESENCE
OF MCV. STILL EXPECT A SEA BREEZE (LATER) COLLISION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SHIFTED A BIT EAST FROM YESTERDAY. WITH A COUPLE HAIL AND
WIND REPORTS FROM YSTRDY WILL TWEAK UP THE HWO FOR ISOLATED SVR. HVY
RAIN/ MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CONCERN DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOTION.

MARINE...WITH RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY....WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
OVER THE WATERS. WILL BUMP WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WAVE
WATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH 2 FT SEAS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A CHANGE DURING THE DAY.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN
LONG TERM...HIRSCH

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
191900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON INTERACTION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
OVER THE INTERIOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY
INLAND. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE TWO
SEA BREEZES INTERACT OVER THE INTERIOR AND AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED FROM
VOLUSIA COUNTY TO OSCEOLA COUNTY.  STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AT
5 TO 10 MPH AND GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.  IF
YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE WITHIN RANGE OF A THUNDERSTORM AND SHOULD
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND REPEATED QUICK 1 TO 2 INCH
DOWNPOURS...AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN RECENTLY AND POORLY
DRAINING AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. ALSO...HEAVY RAINS
WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE AREAS WITH ONGOING STANDING WATER PROBLEMS.

MARINERS ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 34 KNOTS BEFORE
THE STORM SHIFT INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A LIGHT SURFACE
WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW DAILY SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND MERGE OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EACH DAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
STEERING FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PB

FLZ147-191815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
147 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BRAGAW