Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.  DEEP TROUGH...VERY ANOMALOUS FOR AUGUST...WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY WEAKEN/RETROGRADE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  AREA WILL CONTINUE
IN CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH.

HAVE CONTEMPLATED FLOOD WATCH FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE THERE IS ALREADY
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.  RECENT CLOUD TRENDS
SHOW THAT HEATING HAS BEEN CUT OFF...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  RIGHT
NOW PLAN TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS EVENING...UNLESS HEAVY RAINS LOOK MORE
IMMINENT.  CAN REVISIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

WEEKEND...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INHIBIT SEA BREEZE SATURDAY
AND PROBABLY ON SUNDAY...BUT INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS.  WILL
THROW IN MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

MON-TUE...DEEP LAYER RIDGE FORECAST TO START RETROGRADING TOWARDS
THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS SHOULD START TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COAST.  DEEP MOISTURE STILL
INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL BUMP UP THE INTERIOR/NORTH COAST
POPS ON TUE TO 50 PERCENT.

WED-FRI...GFS SHOWS SOME DRYING PRECEDING TUTT CELL ON WED...SO
EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS...WHICH CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION FROM TAMPA.

.MARINE...WILL STAY WITH A SOUTHWEST 15 KNOT FORECAST IN THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MARINE MOS GUIDANCE.  WINDS MIGHT GET TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WELL
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF BUMPING WINDS UP OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS.  GRADIENT SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
STARTS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WEAKENS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB TT 074/089 074/089 074 5636
MCO TT 074/089 074/088 074 5636
MLB TT 074/089 074/088 074 4645
VRB TT 074/089 074/088 075 4645

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
082100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STORMS TODAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. STORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE NOON...AND WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME
STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS...AND
LIKELY WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...INTERSECTIONS...
AS WELL AS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN STRONGER STORMS. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE WELL BEYOND THE AUDIBLE RANGE OF THUNDER. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE WITHIN STRIKING RANGE OF THE STORM. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR AUTOMOBILE IMMEDIATELY...AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAREFUL...AS STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STRONG STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
INCLUDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

BRAGAW

FLZ047-053-054-058-059-081730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST...

 NORTHERN
ST. LUCIE COUNTY...SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 1230 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
REPORTED A NUMBER OF FUNNEL CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE OKEECHOBEE CITY
LIMITS. STORMS IN THIS AREA WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTH BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...AND
NORTHWEST SAINT LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM.  RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO
TAKE QUICK ACTION IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.

IF THE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BRAGAW

FLZ047-053-054-058-059-081730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST...

AT 1230 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
REPORTED A NUMBER OF FUNNEL CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE OKEECHOBEE CITY
LIMITS. STORMS IN THIS AREA WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTH BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...AND NORTHWEST
SAINT LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM.  RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK
ACTION IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.

IF THE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BRAGAW

FLZ046-141-081800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
113 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ORANGE...SEMINOLE COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BETWEEN ORLANDO AND SANFORD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...SANFORD...DELTONA AND
EDGEWATER.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ047-054-081815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL OVER  PALM BAY...SEBASTIAN...AND FORT PIERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR
ORLANDO. RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE COVER IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.