Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

FCST FOCUS ON CLOSED UPPER LOW AFFECTING RGN THROUGH EXTENDED.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPPER LO THAT
DRIFTS SEWD INTO NRN MN TODAY THRU FRI...AND REACHES NRN WI BY SAT.
SLIGHT VARIATION FOR SUN AS 00Z ETA HOLDS CENTER OF UPR CIRCULATION
NR ASX AT 12Z SUN...WITH 00Z GFS BRINGING CENTER CLOSER TO LK
WINNEBAGO...BUT THIS MINOR LOCATION DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE LTL IMPACT
ON OVERALL FCST. WITH UPR LO FCST TO ONLY REACH LWR MI BY 00Z TUE...
SYSTEM REMAINS MAIN WX PLAYER FOR ENTIRE FCST PD.

CURRENT TSTMS OVER FAR ERN CWA ASSOC WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERG
ALONG WK SFC TROF...AND CVA WITH 500 MB TROF/VORT LOBE ROTATING THRU
ERN WI. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO LINGER OVER ERN CWA THRU THE ERLY
MORNING.

DRYING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEHIND TROF WILL BRING A
BREAK FM PCPN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COMBINATION OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MSN BUFKIT FCST SFC
BASED CAPE NR 2000 J/KG...SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC TROF AND WEST MID LVL FLOW BACKING SW AHEAD OF NEXT WK
TROF. FCST PROFILE WIND SPEEDS ONLY TO 30KTS...BUT COMBINED WITH
VEERING IN LOWER LAYERS PRODUCING 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 45 KTS...
ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND BRING POSSIBILITY OF SVR. PW/S REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH CATEGORY...BUT SLOW MOVING OR BACK-BUILDING
STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HVY RAINS WITH 2-3 IN AMOUNTS LIKE
YESTERDAY.

BEYOND TONIGHT...VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND LO AND LOCATION OF SFC
FEATURES/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DICTATE TIMING LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. WL LEAVE OPEN ENDED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT NO ALL
DAY RAINS EXPECTED.

TEMP GUID WITHIN REASON WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

.MKX...NONE.

REM

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
500 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW AREAS
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME URBAN OR LOW LAND FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE COLD AIR ALOFT...AND WARM MOIST AIR IN
LOW LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

HENTZ