Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

FORECAST QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD INSTABILITY INTO THE
EVNG HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR INSOLATION AND APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY. APPEARS BOTH ETA AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A JET STREAK AND MID LVL SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE RGN LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING IN THE MID LVL OMEGA
IN THE PROCESS. DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS OPPOSED TO INLAND SO WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.

POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE MRNG SAT. SOME MID LVL DRYING NOTED IN
BOTH MODELS ACROSS THE WEST. HEATING AND PRESENCE OF THIS MID LVL
DRY AIR LEADING TO INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND INTO THE EVENING THIS DRY AIR
SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WARMING AS WELL INLAND SAT. ANOTHER ROUND SUN
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND INCREASED OMEGA BY LATE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO MON MRNG BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. LOW LVL WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY SW THROUGH
THE FORECAST BUT GFS DOES SHOW SOME BACKING BY MON ALLOWING EVEN
MORE MSTR INTO THE REGION.

STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AS WELL THROUGH WED. GFS DOES TRY TO SLIDE THE TROF OF THE
COAST LATE TUE...BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT UNLIKELY GIVEN PRESENCE OF
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. MAINTAINING A FAIRLY
STAGNANT PATTERN. THIS MAY SHIFT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT TRIES TO DROP A FRONT INTO NRN NC BY
FRI...BUT THIS ALSO SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS. STILL WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY AND MSTR.

MARINE: PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. SEAS RUNNING
BETWEEN 6 TO 7 FT AT FRYING PAN AND DIAMOND WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT.
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS TONIGHT. S OR SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUN INTO MON...BUT WILL
SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEEDS AND CORRESPONDING SEAS.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS
15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.

MLF/RAP

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-111130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 6 AM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TO NORTH OF SURF CITY TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 429 AM FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JBM