Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2003

GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AND IS ALSO NOT DEPICTING CURRENT SITUATION AS WELL AS ETA
IS. WILL THEREFORE OPT TO SHADE MY FORECAST TOWARD THE ETA IN THE
EARLY PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF INCREASED LIFT AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC BOUNDARY
EDGES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LVL SUPPORT. HOWEVER BEST UPPER
SUPPORT IS SHEARED A BIT FARTHER NORTH...WHICH MAY LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. BETTER JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THEN SUBSIDENCE AS THE SHORT WAVE ASCD WITH
THE JET STREAK MOVES EAST. WITH SFC BOUNDARY WASHED OUT OVER THE
AREA AND SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SRLY TO SERLY MAY SEE
SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY.

WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SHORT
WAVES TO KEY ON WILL CONFINE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST INLAND
WITH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS SEEING A LESSER CHANCE. BOTH GFS AND
ETA SHOW MID LVL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
BY EARLY TUES REFLECTION OF WRN GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE
TOP OF THIS HIGH AND SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL. SO WILL UP POPS A BIT FOR BOTH
TUE AND WED.

BEYOND WED AFTN MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLE SAG SFC BOUNDARY A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BY EARLY FRI. WILL TRIM BACK
POPS A BIT ON THUR AS BULK OF THE LIFT IS THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL MAINTAIN FRI AND SAT DRY GIVEN NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

MARINE: WIND SHIFT ACRS OUR N WTRS ATTM...WITH N-NE N OF OREGON
INLET AND ALBEMARLE...S-SW TO THE S. EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
S-SW ACRS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...REMAINING ON THE LT SIDE. OVERALL
EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FORECAST
PD. NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE GFS TUE/WED TIME FRAME...WL MAX
WINDS OUT AT 20 KT AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHUD KEEP SEAS BLO 6FT.

.MHX...NONE.

MLF/NMP

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-281045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
441 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CTC