Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED): WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON ROUGHLY A MQI TO FLO
LINE AS OF 04Z. IR SATPIX SHOWING THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW ENTERING THE
WRN PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SOME HEALTHY TSTMS IN THAT AREA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST THRU THE NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY WORKS TO THE N OF THE CWA AND AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY WORKS UP THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH. CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES
TO BE SEVERE WX THREAT AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST...HIGH CAPE
(1400-1700 J/KG) UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA WITH LIS -4 TO
-5 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GOOD H5 JET ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.75
INCHES)...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD ALSO DROP ALOT OF RAINFALL QUICKLY.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR TODAY WOULD BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT HEATING. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER GENERATING GOOD CAPE VALUES. WILL AWAIT THE NEXT
SWODY1...BUT ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WITH HWO
AND SPS TO FOLLOW HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT.  BEST OMEGA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS OFFSHORE WEDS WITH MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED.
WILL CARRY CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PCT POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDS
AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WEDS.

EXTENDED (THU-MON): CURRENT GFS/MRF HINTING A MORE DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION
THRU LATE WEEK AND WILL SCALE POPS FROM 30 PCT BACK TO 20 PCT FOR MOST OF
THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA LEVELS AT DIAMOND AND
FRYING PAN AS WARM FRONT HAS WORKED N OVERNIGHT...THUS SCA LOOKS
GOOD TODAY FOR ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND. GFS SEEMS MODEL OF CHOICE
BUT DID GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEEDS DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER
WINDS THROUGH END OF WEEK...AND THUS SLIGHTLY LOWER WAVE HGT NUMBERS
THAN FROM WW3.

.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.

FCSTID =  11

MHX  80 68 84 68 /  70 30 30 20
EWN  81 66 85 67 /  70 30 30 20
HSE  75 67 76 67 /  70 30 30 20
PGV  82 66 86 66 /  70 30 30 20

COLLINS/JBM

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-060945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY.

CTC

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-062000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

WARM UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST ANY TIME
TODAY AND RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

COLLINS

NCZ044>046-080-090>093-061000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
504 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT...WASHINGTON...CRAVEN...
LENOIR...JONES...DUPLIN...BEAUFORT AND TYRRELL COUNTIES UNTIL
600 AM EDT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM WILLIAMSTON IN MARTIN COUNTY TO
NEAR FAISON IN WESTERN DUPLIN COUNTY. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH AND SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6 AM.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CTC

NCZ045>047-080-081-090>094-098-061100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
555 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...WASHINGTON...MAINLAND
HYDE...CRAVEN...LENOIR...JONES...DUPLIN...PAMLICO...BEAUFORT...
MAINLAND DARE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 555 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MARTIN COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL DUPLIN COUNTY. THE LINE IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CTC