Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

SHORT TERM: AS EXPECTED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG HEATING AND COOL POOL ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW. WITH LOW WBZ
HGTS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL. THINK ACTIVITY WILL DIE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
OVERNIGHT.AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CALM WINDS.

FCST CONTINUES TO BE VERY TRICKY...TYPICAL OF SPRING. THE UPPER LOW
LOW SLOWLY EXITS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE
RIDGING OVR THE SE. THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAST TO BRING MOIST
ASSCTD WITH A SERIES OF WK IMPULSES EMERGING OUT OF THE GOM INTO NC.
THE DISTB WILL ROTATING AROUND A DEEP AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVR THE CENTRAL US. RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING OVR THE
EAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS...BUT HIGHER HGTS ARE NOW EXPECTED OVR THE
GREAT LAKES. THINK THE GFS IS A TAD FAST AND WILL TREND TWRD THE
SLOWER ETA INDICATING AN INC IN CLOUDS MON. PREFER TO KEEP POPS 20%
OR LESS. TUE WILL SEE THE ATMOS BECOMING MORE FRONTOGENETIC ACROSS
NC. THE RISING HEIGHTS OVR THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN A SFC
HIGH OVR ESTRN CANADA WHICH WILL THEN RIDGE DOWN INTO THE SE. A
STRONG NE/E FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NC TUE AND CONTINUE INTO WED
WHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WAA WILL BE
OCCURRING JUST OFF THE SFC PRODUCING PERIODIC LIFT AND A THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF RAIN BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EXTENDED. LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED MON NIGHT AND TUE AND WILL
THEN LOWER TO CHANCE WED. HIGH TEMP FCST VERY DIFFICULT. GENERALLY
WENT WITH LOWER 70S MON...AROUND UPPER 60S TUE AND MIDDLE 60S
WED.

EFP: EXPECTING SOME MODERATION THU AND FRI AS SFC FLOW BECOMES SE.
STILL UNCERTAINTY WHEN FRONT COMES THROUGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE FRI
NIGHT OR ERLY SAT. WILL CARRY POPS THU-FRI NIGHT AND DRY SAT-SUN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC TEMPS.

MARINE:  ETA AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. ANAL SHOWS 1011 LOW
SITUATED OVR ONSLOW BAY. STRONGEST WINDS CONT ON N/NE SIDE OF LOW IN
THE PGRAD...WHILE WINDS NR THE LOW VERY LT. SEAS STILL AROUND 6 FT
HAT TO LOOKOUT WITH 4-5 S AND N OF THAT ZONE. AS SUCH WL NEED TO
CARRY SCA FOR EARLY TNGT HAT TO LOOKOUT W/ SEAS SUBSIDING OVERNT. LT
WINDS THRU MON WITH LOW PRES THEN TRAILING BNDRY ACROSS THE AREA.
NEXT EVENT TUE NT WITH HI PRES BLDNG SOUTH AND NE WIND SURGE. WL
ADVERTISE SCA CONDITIONS DVLPG TUE NT LASTING THRU WED. BY THU...GFS
ADVERTISES WARM FRONT LIFTING N THRU THE AREA AND TIGHTENING PGRAD.
MARGINAL GALES ARE ADVERTISED MID-THU THRU EARLY FRI. HOWEVER...LIKE
PREV RUNS...NOTICED SOME PSBL FEEDBACK AND THUS FEEL THAT IT IS BEST
TO GRADUALLY INCRS WINDS IF NEEDED IN LATER PACKAGES...AND THUS FOR
NOW WL HOLD AT SCA SPEEDS.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADV CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

ELARDO/PETRO

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-161045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS...WITH SOME MINOR PONDING OF WATER POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MLF