Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WGUS72 KMHX 172343
FFSMHX
NCC055-180045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TO CONTINUE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MAINLAND DARE COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 743 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND DARE COUNTY. RUNOFF FROM THIS 
RAINFALL...PLUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING UNTIL 845 PM.

FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF MANNS HARBOR ALONG HIGHWAY 264.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR
RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

LAT...LON 3567 7575 3568 7595 3587 7594 3588 7574
          3585 7575 3582 7572 3574 7572 3569 7571

5

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

RATHER SURPRISED AT THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR ACROSS ESTRN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA DID DEPICT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OFF THE COAST AND THIS AND LACK
OF SIG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROBABLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION INITIALLY TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ENHANCED
CU/TCU BEGINNING TO FORM AND WE MAY YET POP A FEW CELLS SOON. BETTER
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE OVER THE
TERRAIN OF THE PIEDMONT AND TRACK SE INTO THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVENING. SPC STILL HAS ESTRN NC IN A SLGT RISK WITH A
WATCH OUT WEST AND STILL ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION. TOUGH CALL ON PCPN CHANCES NEXT 36 HOURS AS MAV (GFS)
LOOKS TOO WET AND MET (ETA) TOO DRY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO
ESTRN NC LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THUS
WILL HAVE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS BUT THINKING MORE ALONG THE LINE OF
30-40% NOT THE CURRENT 50. DURING MON ANOTHER DISTB IS FORECAST BY
THE MODELS TO SWING ACROSS NC WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -10C.
THIS COMBINED WITH FRONT AND SOME UPPER LVL DIFL NR JET ENTRANCE
REGION SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEEP CONVECTION. SPS DAY 2
NOT OUTLOOKING ESTRN NC BUT IT MENTIONS THREAT OF ISOLD WET
MICROBURSTS HERE. THINKING OF 30-40% POPS. ETA/GFS ARE NOW BOTH
INDICATING THE FRONT SLIPPING OFF THE JUST OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TUE AS THE TROUGH SHEARS/LIFTS OUT AND
LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE THE PLAINS RIDGE BRIDGES
INTO THE MID-ATLC. THE SFC FRONT WASHES OUT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE
GFS DRIES OUT MEAN RH WITH NO SIG IMPULSES SET TO AFFECT THE AREA
WED AND THU. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST BUT GIVEN CLIMO
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROBLY GO WITH
MINIMAL (20%) POPS. THE WEAK MID ATLC UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRI
WITH THE DEEP S WEAKNESS DRIFTING NE TWRDS OUR AREA BY FRI. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE AND MOISTENS THE ATMOS BACK UP. WILL UP POPS TO
CLIMO FRI-SUN WITH TEMPS FOLLOWING SUITE.

MARINE: SEEING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS (20KT / 5 FT SEAS) ATTM
MAINLY S OF HATTERAS. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS BDNRY MVS CLOSER TO THE WTRS.
THEREAFTER...GNRLY LT WINDS AND REASONABLE SEAS FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN THE BNDRY IN VCNTY OF OUR WTRS AND WEAK PGRAD. TO
SUMMARIZE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE S OF HATTERAS FOR TNGT.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO/PETRO

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ103-172245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANTEO...OR ABOUT OVER MANNS HARBOR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WANCHESE AT 550 PM EDT AND NEAR
OREGON INLET AT 600 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NP