Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

TROPICAL WAVE SEDATELY OOZED THROUGH S FLA EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH
LESS THAN EXPECTED CONVECTION...THOUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY EXPERIENCED
SOME DECENT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
HAS DECREASED BEHIND SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO HAVE LID ON
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. EXPECT CAP TO BREAK LATER WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTERIOR AND W. SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED ALSO.

FOR THE FORECAST...TONIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...S FLA WILL
BE IN A VERY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE W U.S. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLC SW TOWARD FLA. IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE E U.S. THAT WILL FLUCTUATE IN SOUTHERN
U.S PENETRATION AS SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS...THE SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL VARY IN POSITION OVER CENTRAL TO S FLA AND BACK
WITH THE FLUCTUATION OF DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ALSO...AT THE
MOMENT...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE ATLC AND OVER
THE AREA...SOMETIME TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

OVERALL...S FLA CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST...AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE PATTERN MAY REVERSE AS
WINDS ALOFT TO STEER CONVECTION BECOME SW. COLLISION OF SEA BREEZES
PLACES HIGHEST POPS IN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY THEN INTERIOR AND E
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

IN THE MARINE ZONES...GREAT BOATERS PERIOD AS WINDS E TO SE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.

NO FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTS.

PBI BB 078/090 078/090 077 1523232
FLL BB 080/089 078/089 078 1523232
MIA BB 080/090 080/090 079 1523232
APF BB 075/090 075/089 078 1524343=

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-151600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.