Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
IF I CAN JUST MAKE IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT. GFS STILL LATCHING ON TO IDEA OF TROUGH OVER CARIBBEAN
GETTING CAUGHT UP IN FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. IN FACT, THIS BECOMING MORE OF REALITY AS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA CONTINUING TO
TRACK NORTHWEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH
CONTINUING TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPPER RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES. THUS, COLD FRONT HAS STRONG PUSH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL PUSH ALL OF THE WAY
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PROBLEM ARISES AS TO JUST
WHAT THE TIMING WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. MESO-ETA LOOKS RATHER SUSPICIOUS IN THAT IT HAS US
OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN IN FACT WE ARE GETTING QUITE A BIT OF
SUN MIXED IN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IT ALSO GIVES US
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH IT AGREES WITH THE
GFS AS FAR AS MOISTURE CONTENT GOES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS
HOVER AROUND TWO INCH PWATS FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING WET TODAY, WOULD SUSPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
WETTER DAY. WAS CONTEMPLATING POSSIBLY GOING WITH FLOOD WATCH BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WHILE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA HAS SEEN FIVE TO TEN
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK, WE ARE JUST GETTING STARTED
WITH THE RAINY SEASON AND CANALS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES. ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE WE CAN EXPECT ONE TO
TWO INCH TOTALS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WHERE
HEAVIER CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE TOO FAST IN MOVING THE MOISTURE THROUGH AND HAS IT EXITING THE
EAST COAST BY 18Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE, WILL NOT LOWER POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. WILL ALSO GO WITH
FAIRLY HIGH POPS TONIGHT FOR ANY TIME AS BOTH MODELS HAVE THIS
MOISTURE ARRIVING PRIOR TO 12Z. SO WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, WILL TAKE
A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. I PLAN TO UNDERCUT WEDNESDAYS MAXIMUMS
FROM THE MODELS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THEN
WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS. GFS HANGS SOME MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED POPS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FINAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN
FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS RUN
INDICATES PWAT STAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY SO NO DOUBT
BACK TO MORE CLIMO STUFF.

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS SO SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

PBI TB 072/086 071/089 070 5733
FLL TB 074/087 073/089 072 5733
MIA TB 075/086 074/089 072 5733
APF TB 073/084 072/084 073 5522

.MIA...NONE.