Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
210 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

CORRECTED TO ADD A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO MY DISCUSSION.

THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER MY CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED
FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF FORT
MYERS. THIS FRONT WAS SEPARATING THE VERY MOIST AIR WITH THE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE VERY DRY AIR OF DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES AND THE SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DUE
TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIE
OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.

THE LOW DEW POINTS OVER PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD START TO RAISE UP SOME TOWARD EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR. BUT WITH THE DEWPOINT
SO LOW I AM PLANNING ON LOWERING THE LOWS TO AROUND 70 FOR PALM
BEACH AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE METRO
AREAS. FOR REST OF THE CWA...LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 INTERIOR TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WEST COAST.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT ON THURSDAY OVER OUR CWA.
BUT WITH THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY AND
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ON BOTH COASTS...THERE SHOULD BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER MY CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR TO AROUND 90
ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COASTS.

.EXTENDED...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPMENTS THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST US...AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY AGAIN
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COASTS AND IN
THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 70 INTERIOR.

.MARINE...

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS
THE STATIONARY FRONT STARTS TO WEAKEN...AND THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TO 10 KNOTS ON THE GULF WATERS
ON THURSDAY.  THE WINDS WILL THEN START TO RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AND THEN BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
THE NORTH.

THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW THE HIGHLIGHT VALUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
GET UP INTO THE LOWER 70S AND REMAIN THERE.

THANKS FOR THE COORD MLB...TBW...AND EYW.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

PBI BB 072/089 074/089 075 54043
FLL TB 073/088 076/090 076 54243
MIA TB 075/089 076/091 075 54343
APF BB 074/089 073/089 074 54432

.MIA...NONE.

BAXTER

FLZ063-066>075-141500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THUS...THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HANDEL