Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. FLOW AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL AFFECT THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE ARKANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHEAR
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES CREATING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY AND FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM MOIST GULF AIR
INTO THE MID SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND WITH THE
HELP OF THE UPPER WAVES CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (REF: LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER).

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ARKANSAS MISSOURI BORDER
EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF TENNESSEE. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
MID SOUTH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

JCL

ARZ028-292145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MISSISSIPPI COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLYTHEVILLE AT
417 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BLYTHEVILLE...
LUXORA AND OSCEOLA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ088-300100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

...CODE ORANGE OZONE HEALTH ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNSET...

THE MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED A CODE
ORANGE OZONE HEALTH ADVISORY EFFECTIVE FOR MEMPHIS AND ALL OF
SHELBY COUNTY THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNSET. THIS OZONE
HEALTH ADVISORY IS DUE TO MONITORED OZONE VALUES THAT ARE
APPROACHING THE UNHEALTHFUL RANGE. THESE VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCYS FEDERAL SAFE HEALTH STANDARD. THE
MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT RECOMMENDS THAT ACTIVE
CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE...SUCH
AS ASTHMA...LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST OZONE FORECASTS AND UPDATES UNTIL AIR QUALITY
VALUES RETURN TO SAFE LEVELS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.