Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SHOULD HAVE STUCK WITH ORIGINAL THINKING. TSTMS DEVELOPING ACRS SE
MO INVOF OF SFC BOUNDARY. 50 KT 250 MB JET MAX ACRS THE REGION AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY PROVIDING ENUF UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS. CAPES RANGES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONT TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AND EVENING AND MOVE SE INTO MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN. WL MENTION
SEVERE IN ZONES.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACRS NRN MS ON WED.
DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN SXNS OF THE CWFA WL
BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTH ON TUE. MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WL STRENGTHEN
AND APPROACH FROM THE NW. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY S OF
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET COULD FAVOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIP TO THE SOUTH ON WED NIGHT AND WL BEGIN
TO TAPER POPS AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES TO THE E/SE. THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU HOPEFULLY KICKING OF THE
LAST CHC OF TSTMS FOR A FEW DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FOR
FRI THROUGH WEEKEND PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WITH UPPER RIDGE EDGING IN A LITTLE AND UPR TROF A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD BE DRY FRI-SUN.

MORE ENERGY COMES OVR THE RIDGE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE WANTS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST AND WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHC POPS MON AND TUE.

.MEG...NONE.

SJM

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-060930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND INTERACT
WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
KENTUCKY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SJM