Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

CURRENTLY...SFC ANALYSIS IS A MESS THIS AFTN WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.
TSTMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTN ALONG AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THIS
MORNINGS MCS ACROSS AR. WHERE PRECIP HAS NOT OCCURRED THIS AFTN
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 90..OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO
AROUND 70. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SS AND
THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN STATES WILL LIFT OUT DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS
WHILE THE UPR HI OVR THE SW STATES BUILDS EWD TWD THE CNTRL PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL IMPULSES WILL CONT TO SINK SWD ON
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR HIGH. WILL MENTION CHC POPS ON MONDAY
OVR THE SRN ZNS WHERE AN UPR LVL SHEAR AXIS WILL BE PRESENT. AS THE
UPR HI BUILDS INTO THE REGION WILL GO WITH SCHC POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...MAINLY AFTN TIME FRAME. THE GFS DROPS A WEAK FNT
INTO THE FA TUE NITE INTO WED AND THEN KEEPS WEAK LO PRES OVR THE
AREA THRU THU MORNING. AM NOT SURE THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT WITH THE UPR HI BUILDING EWD. AN INVERTED TROF SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUN SO WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR THEN. WILL GO
WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS.

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY EXCEPT
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

MSZ004-131915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
143 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...TIPPAH COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF DUMAS AT 143 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  THIS STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.