Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO TENNESSEE.
ANOTHER AREA IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THIS LINE AHEAD OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT TO UPDATE THE CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS A REPEAT
OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A 50
POP GOING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CUT
OFF LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
 THE SFC FRONT WILL STAY STALLED OUT NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. WITH THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...A CHANCE POP WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.MEG...NONE.

GGR/KRS

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BRING  A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYTIME THIS WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

KRS

MSZ016-111815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LEE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERONA AT 1242
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BALDWYN...TUPELO AND
VERONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MSZ001-007-TNZ088-111900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...DESOTO...SHELBY AND
TUNICA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 3 MILES
WEST OF SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUNICA AT 150 PM
CDT.  THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE WINDS
TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO...SHELBY AND TUNICA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
LINE OF STORMS CLOSELY.

MSZ011-112000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
218 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...QUITMAN COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES
WEST OF DARLING AT 218 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN QUITMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MSZ013-112130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LAFAYETTE COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURGESS AT
404 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF OXFORD...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

ARZ058-MSZ010-112315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...COAHOMA AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES.

A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PHILLIPS COUNTY AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF COAHOMA COUNTIES.

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS POTENTIALLY CREATING A FLOODING
SITUATION.  THIS IS CALLED TRAINING.

TRAINING IS WHEN STORMS HIT A LOCATION THEN ADDITIONAL STORMS
FOLLOW.  THIS CYCLE THEN REPEATS, GIVING IT THE TERM TRAINING.  EACH
STORM REPRESENTS A CAR ON THE TRAIN TRACK, WITH EVERY CAR MOVING
ALONG THE TRACK, SIMILAR TO EVERY STORM MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA.
EACH STORM MAY DUMP HEAVY RAIN ON THE AREA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
OF FLOODING.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLOODING.  HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUING WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CLARKSDALE AND ELAINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. FLOODING
WILL BE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.