Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

QUIET ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED E-W ACRS THE MID SOUTH FROM ABOUT BNA-MKL-SRC. SOME DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...OVR SRN MO/KY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S INVOF OF BOUNDARY AND AROUND 70 TO THE SOUTH. UPR LOW
OVR THE TX PANHANDLE WL MOVE E TO ERN OK BY LATE TODAY WITH CLOUDS
ALREADY INCREASING ACRS THE REGION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4C AND CAPES
1000-1500 J/KG BY MAX HEATING. TSTMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACRS THE
MID SOUTH AS MODERATE LOW AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
AND THE QUASI STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SOME FOCUS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE DURING THE DAY AS WIND PROFILES ARE
WEAK MOST OF THE DAY. MAV TEMPS LOOK FINE.

AS THE UPR LOW MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE A 35+
KT 850 MB LLG SHIFTS EAST FM AR INTO THE MID SOUTH. STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WL BE ONGOING DURING THE DAY ACRS OK/AR WL
SHIFT E INTO THE MID SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WRN 2/3RD OF
THE MID SOUTH UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT WL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES FM THE NEW 06Z RUN
OF MESO ETA BEGINNING TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FM 00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. THE
NEW SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND 45 TO 50 KTS
AROUND 500 MBS. HELICITY AT 03Z IN MEM PEGGED AT 408 M2/S2...SO A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. MESO ETA SHOWS A WARM FNT MOVING N THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND THIS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY.

UPR LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE ERN AR ON SAT. STILL MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ACRS THE MID SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD
BET AND WL CONT LIKELY POPS. WIND PROFILES WEAKEN AND THE MAIN
THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS WL BE HAIL. UPR LOW CONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY E
SAT NIGHT AND WL TAPER POPS A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. ON SUN UPR LOW
DROPS SOUTH AS UPR RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.
SHEAR AXIS ALONG WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WL REQUIRE CHC
POPS.

THINK UPR RIDGE WL PROVIDE ENUF SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT THOUGH ISOLD
ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY TUE A FRONT WL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IT MAY NEVER GET THROUGH. WL
HAVE TO GO WITH CHC POPS TUE-THU.

PRELIM NUMBERS
MEM 81/70 80/67 80 77753
MKL 81/67 80/65 79 66763
JBR 80/67 78/64 79 77753
TUP 83/68 83/67 81 65664

.MEG...NONE.

SJM

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL
THREATEN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT WEST OF LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR UNION CITY
TENNESSEE THROUGH JACKSON TENNESSEE TO CALHOUN CITY MISSISSIPPI. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SATURDAY WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.