Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TORNADO WATCH 244 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH UNTIL 7
AM CDT THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
JACKSON MCKENZIE AND LEXINGTON ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHEAR
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WITH A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES AND IMPULSES EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS A WARM
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INCLUDING THE MID SOUTH AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE WEST OF THE MID SOUTH AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER TEXAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT NOT REACH THE MID SOUTH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. THEREFORE THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MID SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS WEEK WITH EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO VIOLENT LARGE TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY THEN RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE MID SOUTH AND CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092--

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
0951 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 247 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN ARKANSAS...
CLAY            CRAIGHEAD       CRITTENDEN      CROSS
GREENE          LAWRENCE        LEE             MISSISSIPPI
PHILLIPS        POINSETT        RANDOLPH        ST. FRANCIS

IN MISSISSIPPI...
ALCORN          BENTON          CALHOUN         CHICKASAW
COAHOMA         DE SOTO         ITAWAMBA        LAFAYETTE
LEE             MARSHALL        MONROE          PANOLA
PONTOTOC        PRENTISS        QUITMAN         TALLAHATCHIE
TATE            TIPPAH          TISHOMINGO      TUNICA
UNION           YALOBUSHA

IN MISSOURI...
DUNKLIN         PEMISCOT

IN TENNESSEE...
CARROLL         CHESTER         CROCKETT        DECATUR
DYER            FAYETTE         GIBSON          HARDEMAN
HARDIN          HAYWOOD         HENDERSON       HENRY
LAKE            LAUDERDALE      MCNAIRY         MADISON
OBION           SHELBY          TIPTON          WEAKLEY

TNZ021-054-051845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
133 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CARROLL AND HENDERSON
COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF CEDAR
GROVE AT 133 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
HUNTINGDON...LEXINGTON AND MCKENZIE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

TNZ052-052015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MADISON COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 23 MILES
WEST OF BEMIS AT 240 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF JACKSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.