Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 PM CST FRI APR 4 2003

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO EXTREME NW AR AND ERN OK.
THE MAIN TSTM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY WITH ANOTHER AREA
OVER NE TX.

EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND
01Z AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TNT. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS FROM BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THE
CHANCE OF SVR TSTMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE GREATER. A
SMALL CHC OF SHWRS WILL LINGER OVER NE MS EARLY SAT BEFORE DRIER AIR
TAKES CONTROL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CNTRL MS SAT...RETURN NWD
AS A WARM FRONT SAT NITE...AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SUN. A SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT SUN NITE...THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE
AGAIN MOVE THROUGH AS THE COLD FRONT. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SAT
NITE WITH VERY HIGH POPS SUN. CANNOT RULE OUT SVR STORMS SUN AND
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL PROVIDE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK MON-FRI.

PRELIM VALUES...
MEM 53/67/50/68/50/62 714861
MKL 52/66/47/66/51/60 713871
JBR 50/65/47/65/47/60 604861
TUP 57/70/53/73/55/64 923871

.MEG...NONE.

SWC

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC